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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Michael Aswell Jr. won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1479

Elo1465

Lucas AlmeidavsMichael Aswell Jr.UFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Saturday, October 11, 2025Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Michael Aswell Jr. won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:42

Style matchupLucas Almeida: Pressure fightervsMichael Aswell Jr.: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Michael Aswell Jr. wins(67.1%)

Actual result: Michael Aswell Jr. wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Aswell Jr. at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Aswell Jr. enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Michael Aswell Jr. is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Lucas Almeida has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Lucas Almeida

Red Corner

Michael Aswell Jr.

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1479

Elo

1465

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lucas Almeida

oldest →

KOvs Michael Trizano · Jun 22

SUBvs Pat Sabatini · Jun 23

KOvs Andre Fili · Dec 23

vs Timmy Cuamba · Jun 24

vs Danny Silva · Mar 25

latest

Michael Aswell Jr.L3 streak

oldest →

vs Bolaji Oki · May 25

vs Luke Riley · Mar 26

DECvs Gaston Bolanos · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lucas AlmeidaMetricMichael Aswell Jr.

4.94

Strikes / min

7.79

5.36

Strikes absorbed / min

7.43

44%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.32

53%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.42evenly matched on net striking+0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lucas AlmeidaMichael Aswell Jr.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lucas Almeida(6 fights)Michael Aswell Jr.(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.2|Blue -14.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lucas AlmeidaTargetMichael Aswell Jr.

By target zone

21% acc · 33%

Head

57% acc · 100%

100% acc · 11%

Body

83% acc · 56%

Leg

0% acc

By position

43% acc · 100%

Distance

51% acc · 63%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

63% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lucas Almeida rounds

even

Michael Aswell Jr. rounds

Round 1Michael Aswell Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 21

Sig Strikes

30 / 54

42%

Sig Str %

55%

9 / 21

Total Strikes

34 / 59

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Aswell Jr.	30 / 54	34 / 59	0 / 0	0
1	Lucas Almeida	9 / 21	9 / 21	0 / 0	0

Lucas Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Michael Aswell Jr.

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4