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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Luana Santos won · SUB R2

Elo1550

Elo1477

Luana SantosvsTainara LisboaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · Saturday, May 17, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Luana Santos won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:59

Model Prediction: Luana Santos wins(72.8%)

Actual result: Luana Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luana Santos at -148 American odds

+$68 profit

$168 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luana Santos has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Luana Santos has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Luana Santos

Red Corner

Tainara Lisboa

Blue Corner

-148

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1550

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luana SantosW2 streak

oldest →

vs Stephanie Egger · Dec 23

SUBvs Mariya Agapova · Jul 24

vs Casey O'Neill · Aug 24

vs Melissa Croden · Dec 25

DECvs Karol Rosa · Jun 26

latest

Tainara Lisboa

oldest →

SUBvs Jessica-Rose Clark · May 23

vs Ravena Oliveira · Oct 23

KOvs Melissa Croden · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luana SantosMetricTainara Lisboa

2.99

Strikes / min

2.01

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

2.88

63%

Strike defense

45%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

1.67

85%

Takedown defense

53%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luana SantosTainara Lisboa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luana Santos(7 fights)Tainara Lisboa(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +72.9|Blue -72.9

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -308.0|Blue +308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luana SantosTargetTainara Lisboa

By target zone

73% acc · 73%

Head

11% acc · 50%

100% acc · 13%

Body

20% acc · 17%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

75% acc · 80%

Distance

18% acc · 100%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luana Santos rounds

even

Tainara Lisboa rounds

Round 1Luana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control3:45

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Luana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control4:12

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 19

Sig Strikes

6 / 34

78%

Sig Str %

16%

50 / 57

Total Strikes

7 / 35

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:57

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tainara Lisboa	5 / 19	6 / 20	0 / 1	0
1	Luana Santos	9 / 11	17 / 20	1 / 1	0
2	Tainara Lisboa	1 / 15	1 / 15	0 / 0	0
2	Luana Santos	6 / 8	33 / 37	1 / 1	1

Luana Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7

Tainara Lisboa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4