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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Luana Santos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1550

Elo1490

Luana SantosvsStephanie EggerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Saturday, December 9, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Luana Santos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLuana Santos: WrestlervsStephanie Egger: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Luana Santos wins(80.2%)

Actual result: Luana Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luana Santos at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luana Santos enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Luana Santos has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Luana Santos has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Luana Santos

Red Corner

Stephanie Egger

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1550

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luana SantosW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mariya Agapova · Jul 24

vs Casey O'Neill · Aug 24

SUBvs Tainara Lisboa · May 25

vs Melissa Croden · Dec 25

DECvs Karol Rosa · Jun 26

latest

Stephanie Egger

oldest →

KOvs Shanna Young · Oct 21

SUBvs Jessica-Rose Clark · Feb 22

SUBvs Mayra Bueno Silva · Aug 22

SUBvs Ailin Perez · Sep 22

SUBvs Irina Alekseeva · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luana SantosMetricStephanie Egger

2.99

Strikes / min

2.20

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

2.48

63%

Strike defense

52%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

2.48

85%

Takedown defense

50%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luana SantosStephanie Egger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luana Santos(7 fights)Stephanie Egger(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +60.3|Blue -60.3

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luana SantosTargetStephanie Egger

By target zone

33% acc · 38%

Head

32% acc · 70%

76% acc · 42%

Body

76% acc · 30%

79% acc · 21%

Leg

0% acc

By position

53% acc · 94%

Distance

30% acc · 66%

33% acc · 6%

Clinch

79% acc · 34%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luana Santos rounds

even

Stephanie Egger rounds

Round 1Luana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control2:34

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Luana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control2:28

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 3Stephanie Egger edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:42

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 104

Sig Strikes

44 / 115

47%

Sig Str %

37.7%

97 / 161

Total Strikes

112 / 193

2 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:44

Ctrl Time

1:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stephanie Egger	13 / 39	36 / 68	0 / 0
1	Luana Santos	20 / 45	42 / 73	0 / 1
2	Stephanie Egger	20 / 49	37 / 67	0 / 0
2	Luana Santos	28 / 45	34 / 51	1 / 2
3	Stephanie Egger	11 / 27	39 / 58	1 / 1
3	Luana Santos	5 / 14	21 / 37	1 / 1

Luana Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7

Stephanie Egger

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7