Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Amanda Ribas won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1476

Elo1480

Luana PinheirovsAmanda RibasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Saturday, November 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Amanda Ribas won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:53

Style matchupLuana Pinheiro: WrestlervsAmanda Ribas: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Amanda Ribas wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Amanda Ribas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Ribas at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luana Pinheiro enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Amanda Ribas enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Amanda Ribas has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Luana Pinheiro

Red Corner

Amanda Ribas

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1476

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'4"

157.48 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luana PinheiroL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sam Hughes · Nov 21

vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Apr 23

SUBvs Angela Hill · May 24

vs Gillian Robertson · Nov 24

vs Tecia Pennington · May 25

latest

Amanda RibasL4 streak

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · Mar 23

KOvs Maycee Barber · Jun 23

vs Rose Namajunas · Mar 24

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · Jan 25

KOvs Tabatha Ricci · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luana PinheiroMetricAmanda Ribas

3.29

Strikes / min

4.26

4.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.29

60%

Strike defense

60%

2.33

TDs / 15 min

2.05

71%

Takedown defense

82%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.77Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luana PinheiroAmanda Ribas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luana Pinheiro(7 fights)Amanda Ribas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.0|Blue +4.0

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luana PinheiroTargetAmanda Ribas

By target zone

42% acc · 65%

Head

36% acc · 66%

61% acc · 20%

Body

28% acc · 9%

67% acc · 15%

Leg

59% acc · 25%

By position

47% acc · 93%

Distance

38% acc · 93%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

0% acc

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luana Pinheiro rounds

even

Amanda Ribas rounds

Round 1Luana Pinheiro edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Amanda Ribas edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Amanda Ribas edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:11

Knockdowns0

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 116

Sig Strikes

87 / 224

47%

Sig Str %

38.7%

56 / 120

Total Strikes

96 / 234

1 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

12.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:11

Ctrl Time

0:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Amanda Ribas	18 / 69	19 / 70	0 / 0
1	Luana Pinheiro	25 / 54	25 / 54	0 / 0
2	Amanda Ribas	40 / 98	40 / 98	0 / 0
2	Luana Pinheiro	18 / 35	18 / 36	0 / 2
3	Amanda Ribas	29 / 57	37 / 66	0 / 1
3	Luana Pinheiro	12 / 27	13 / 30	1 / 4

Luana Pinheiro

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights7

Amanda Ribas

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights13