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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Luana Carolina won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1500

Elo1487

Luana CarolinavsJulija StoliarenkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Saturday, February 3, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Luana Carolina won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:52

Model Prediction: Luana Carolina wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Luana Carolina wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Tale of the Tape

Luana Carolina

Red Corner

Julija Stoliarenko

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1500

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luana Carolina

oldest →

KOvs Molly McCann · Mar 22

vs Joanne Wood · Mar 23

vs Ivana Petrovic · Jul 23

vs Lucie Pudilova · Jul 24

vs Michelle Montague · Sep 25

latest

Julija Stoliarenko

oldest →

vs Alexis Davis · Feb 22

SUBvs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jul 22

KOvs Chelsea Chandler · Oct 22

SUBvs Molly McCann · Jul 23

vs Gabriella Fernandes · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luana CarolinaMetricJulija Stoliarenko

4.65

Strikes / min

2.74

3.46

Strikes absorbed / min

4.45

51%

Strike defense

46%

0.30

TDs / 15 min

0.78

68%

Takedown defense

54%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.19Δ 2.90 — meaningful gap-1.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luana CarolinaJulija Stoliarenko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luana Carolina(10 fights)Julija Stoliarenko(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.9|Blue -12.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luana CarolinaTargetJulija Stoliarenko

By target zone

43% acc · 62%

Head

18% acc · 44%

58% acc · 23%

Body

60% acc · 38%

71% acc · 15%

Leg

33% acc · 19%

By position

37% acc · 42%

Distance

22% acc · 69%

65% acc · 20%

Clinch

63% acc · 31%

61% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luana Carolina rounds

even

Julija Stoliarenko rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:04

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:46Control

Round 2Luana Carolina edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:58

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

Round 3Luana Carolina edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns2

Control3:25

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 136

Sig Strikes

16 / 59

47%

Sig Str %

19.7%

138 / 230

Total Strikes

21 / 68

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 5

50%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

5:27

Ctrl Time

3:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julija Stoliarenko	6 / 25	6 / 26	1 / 2	0
1	Luana Carolina	12 / 32	35 / 61	0 / 1	0
2	Julija Stoliarenko	10 / 28	14 / 35	0 / 1	0
2	Luana Carolina	25 / 55	43 / 80	0 / 0	0
3	Julija Stoliarenko	0 / 6	1 / 7	0 / 2	3
3	Luana Carolina	29 / 49	60 / 89	2 / 2	0

Luana Carolina

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights10

Julija Stoliarenko

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9