← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Luan Lacerda won · SUB R2

Elo1492

Elo1457

Luan LacerdavsSaimon OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Saturday, October 11, 2025Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Luan Lacerda won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:55

Style matchupLuan Lacerda: WrestlervsSaimon Oliveira: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Luan Lacerda wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Luan Lacerda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luan Lacerda at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luan Lacerda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Saimon Oliveira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Luan Lacerda has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Luan Lacerda

Red Corner

Saimon Oliveira

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

-108

(52%)

1492

Elo

1457

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'4"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luan LacerdaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Cody Stamann · Jan 23

KOvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jun 23

vs Hecher Sosa · Mar 26

latest

Saimon OliveiraL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tony Gravely · Jan 22

KOvs Daniel Marcos · Jan 23

KOvs David Martinez · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luan LacerdaMetricSaimon Oliveira

4.06

Strikes / min

2.62

6.15

Strikes absorbed / min

3.87

49%

Strike defense

45%

2.82

TDs / 15 min

1.18

66%

Takedown defense

36%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.09evenly matched on net striking-1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luan LacerdaSaimon Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luan Lacerda(4 fights)Saimon Oliveira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.4|Blue -34.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +665.0|Blue -665.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luan LacerdaTargetSaimon Oliveira

By target zone

50% acc · 54%

Head

67% acc · 67%

83% acc · 42%

Body

43% acc · 14%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

67% acc · 19%

By position

46% acc · 25%

Distance

47% acc · 38%

75% acc · 25%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

67% acc · 50%

Ground

79% acc · 52%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luan Lacerda rounds

even

Saimon Oliveira rounds

Round 1Luan Lacerda edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control3:38

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 2Luan Lacerda edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:28

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 39

Sig Strikes

21 / 34

61.5%

Sig Str %

66%

60 / 85

Total Strikes

33 / 52

3 / 4

TDs

1 / 2

75%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:06

Ctrl Time

1:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Saimon Oliveira	6 / 8	14 / 22	1 / 2	0
1	Luan Lacerda	10 / 20	26 / 42	2 / 2	0
2	Saimon Oliveira	15 / 26	19 / 30	0 / 0	0
2	Luan Lacerda	14 / 19	34 / 43	1 / 2	1

Luan Lacerda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Saimon Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4