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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Hecher Sosa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1519

Luan LacerdavsHecher SosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Saturday, March 14, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Hecher Sosa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLuan Lacerda: WrestlervsHecher Sosa: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Hecher Sosa wins(72.2%)

Actual result: Hecher Sosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hecher Sosa at -196 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hecher Sosa has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Luan Lacerda

Red Corner

Hecher Sosa

Blue Corner

+164

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-196

(66%)

1492

Elo

1519

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luan Lacerda

oldest →

vs Cody Stamann · Jan 23

KOvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jun 23

SUBvs Saimon Oliveira · Oct 25

latest

Hecher SosaNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luan LacerdaMetricHecher Sosa

4.06

Strikes / min

4.53

6.15

Strikes absorbed / min

2.50

49%

Strike defense

61%

2.82

TDs / 15 min

2.00

66%

Takedown defense

69%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.09Δ 4.12 — meaningful gap+2.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luan LacerdaHecher Sosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luan Lacerda(4 fights)Hecher Sosa(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.6|Blue +27.6

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luan LacerdaTargetHecher Sosa

By target zone

30% acc · 56%

Head

39% acc · 64%

50% acc · 35%

Body

68% acc · 24%

83% acc · 8%

Leg

86% acc · 12%

By position

35% acc · 85%

Distance

47% acc · 85%

50% acc · 15%

Clinch

50% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luan Lacerda rounds

even

Hecher Sosa rounds

Round 1Luan Lacerda edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control1:44

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Hecher Sosa edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:34

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Hecher Sosa edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control0:48

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 168

Sig Strikes

104 / 221

37%

Sig Str %

46.3%

72 / 182

Total Strikes

137 / 263

4 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

35.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:06

Ctrl Time

0:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Hecher Sosa	22 / 50	33 / 64	0 / 0
1	Luan Lacerda	19 / 43	22 / 47	2 / 3
2	Hecher Sosa	42 / 90	49 / 100	0 / 0
2	Luan Lacerda	23 / 64	24 / 67	0 / 3
3	Hecher Sosa	40 / 81	55 / 99	0 / 0
3	Luan Lacerda	20 / 61	26 / 68	2 / 5

Luan Lacerda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Hecher Sosa

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights1