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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cody Stamann won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1488

Luan LacerdavsCody StamannUFC Prediction Result

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Saturday, January 21, 2023Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Cody Stamann won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLuan Lacerda: WrestlervsCody Stamann: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Luan Lacerda wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Cody Stamann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luan Lacerda at +300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cody Stamann enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Luan Lacerda threatens submissions; Cody Stamann has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Cody Stamann has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Luan Lacerda has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Luan Lacerda

Red Corner

Cody Stamann

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-365

(78%)

1492

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luan Lacerda

oldest →

KOvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jun 23

SUBvs Saimon Oliveira · Oct 25

vs Hecher Sosa · Mar 26

latest

Cody StamannL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Said Nurmagomedov · Jan 22

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Jun 22

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · May 23

vs Taylor Lapilus · Jun 24

SUBvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luan LacerdaMetricCody Stamann

4.06

Strikes / min

4.32

6.15

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

49%

Strike defense

60%

2.82

TDs / 15 min

2.17

66%

Takedown defense

76%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.09Δ 2.50 — meaningful gap+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luan LacerdaCody Stamann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luan Lacerda(4 fights)Cody Stamann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.5|Blue -3.5

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +47.7|Blue -47.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luan LacerdaTargetCody Stamann

By target zone

27% acc · 39%

Head

45% acc · 60%

72% acc · 55%

Body

76% acc · 28%

71% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

44% acc · 100%

Distance

101

54% acc · 98%

Clinch

67% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luan Lacerda rounds

even

Cody Stamann rounds

Round 1Cody Stamann edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Cody Stamann edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

52Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Luan Lacerda edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:34

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 181

Sig Strikes

103 / 189

43.7%

Sig Str %

53.3%

85 / 187

Total Strikes

108 / 195

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

16.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:34

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cody Stamann	31 / 66	31 / 66	0 / 1
1	Luan Lacerda	29 / 59	29 / 59	0 / 1
2	Cody Stamann	52 / 87	52 / 87	0 / 1
2	Luan Lacerda	33 / 78	33 / 78	0 / 0
3	Cody Stamann	20 / 36	25 / 42	0 / 0
3	Luan Lacerda	18 / 44	23 / 50	1 / 3

Luan Lacerda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Cody Stamann

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights14