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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Vince Morales won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1425
Elo1454

Louis SmolkavsVince MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · Saturday, December 4, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vince Morales won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:02

Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsVince Morales: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(69.1%)

Actual result: Vince Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Louis Smolka at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Vince Morales enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Vince Morales has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Louis Smolka
Red Corner
VS
Vince Morales
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
1425
Elo
1454
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Louis Smolka
oldest →
L
SUBvs Matt Schnell · Mar 19
W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19
L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20
W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20
L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22
latest
Vince MoralesL5 streak
oldest →
L
vs Miles Johns · Nov 22
L
vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 24
L
vs Elijah Smith · Feb 25
L
vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 25
L
DECvs Colby Thicknesse · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Louis SmolkaMetricVince Morales
4.67
Strikes / min
3.54
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
3.91
53%
Strike defense
54%
1.69
TDs / 15 min
0.71
32%
Takedown defense
63%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1512 vs 1488Strikes4.7 vs 4.2Takedowns1.7 vs 0.1Sub Atts1.80 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 0.4
Louis SmolkaVince Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14401460148015001520← oldermost recent →
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Vince Morales(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -29.4|Blue +29.4
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +245.0|Blue -245.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Louis SmolkaTargetVince Morales

By target zone

5
36% acc · 22%
Head
16
47% acc · 59%
10
100% acc · 43%
Body
8
67% acc · 30%
8
100% acc · 35%
Leg
3
100% acc · 11%

By position

19
68% acc · 83%
Distance
18
47% acc · 67%
4
100% acc · 17%
Clinch
4
67% acc · 15%
0
Ground
5
100% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Louis Smolka rounds
0
even
1
Vince Morales rounds
Round 1Vince Morales edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
23 / 32
Sig Strikes
27 / 49
71%
Sig Str %
55%
23 / 32
Total Strikes
27 / 50
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Vince Morales27 / 4927 / 500 / 00
1Louis Smolka23 / 3223 / 320 / 00

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17

Vince Morales

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11