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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tim Elliott won · U-DEC R3

Elo1425

Elo1500

Louis SmolkavsTim ElliottUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · Saturday, April 15, 2017Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Tim Elliott won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsTim Elliott: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Tim Elliott wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Tim Elliott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Elliott at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Elliott has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Louis Smolka

Red Corner

Tim Elliott

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1425

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Louis SmolkaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19

SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20

KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20

KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21

KOvs Davey Grant · May 22

latest

Tim Elliott

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23

SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25

DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Louis SmolkaMetricTim Elliott

4.67

Strikes / min

3.51

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

53%

Strike defense

56%

1.69

TDs / 15 min

3.61

32%

Takedown defense

59%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Louis SmolkaTim Elliott

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Louis Smolka(10 fights)Tim Elliott(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -75.2|Blue +75.2

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -27.0|Blue +27.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Louis SmolkaTargetTim Elliott

By target zone

39% acc · 85%

Head

53% acc · 60%

67% acc · 10%

Body

83% acc · 26%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

89% acc · 14%

By position

36% acc · 66%

Distance

55% acc · 53%

43% acc · 7%

Clinch

67% acc · 21%

69% acc · 27%

Ground

83% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Louis Smolka rounds

even

Tim Elliott rounds

Round 1Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:46

25Sig. strikes

5Takedowns

3:02Control

Round 2Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:51

13Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:48Control

Round 3Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:03

19Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

2:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 97

Sig Strikes

57 / 91

41%

Sig Str %

61.7%

47 / 105

Total Strikes

98 / 136

1 / 4

TDs

12 / 14

33.3%

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:40

Ctrl Time

8:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Elliott	25 / 38	47 / 61	5 / 5	0
1	Louis Smolka	8 / 25	10 / 27	0 / 2	0
2	Tim Elliott	13 / 22	28 / 40	3 / 3	1
2	Louis Smolka	19 / 35	20 / 37	0 / 1	1
3	Tim Elliott	19 / 31	23 / 35	4 / 6	0
3	Louis Smolka	14 / 37	17 / 41	1 / 1	1

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights21