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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Louis Smolka won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1425
Elo1376

Louis SmolkavsRyan MacDonaldUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Saturday, September 14, 2019Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Louis Smolka won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:43

Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(75.1%)

Actual result: Louis Smolka wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Louis Smolka at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Louis Smolka is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Ryan MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Louis Smolka has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ryan MacDonald (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Louis Smolka
Red Corner
VS
Ryan MacDonald
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
1425
Elo
1376
35
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
5'11"
172.72 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Matt Schnell · Mar 19
L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20
W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20
L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21
L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22
latest
Ryan MacDonald
oldest →
L
vs Chris Gutierrez · Mar 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Louis SmolkaMetricRyan MacDonald
4.67
Strikes / min
2.28
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
6.49
53%
Strike defense
45%
1.69
TDs / 15 min
0.00
32%
Takedown defense
0%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56Δ 4.77 — meaningful gap-4.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1494 vs 1483Strikes4.2 vs 2.3Takedowns1.6 vs 0.0Sub Atts2.10 vs 0.00Form-0.3 vs -1.0
Louis SmolkaRyan MacDonald

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Ryan MacDonald(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +48.8|Blue -48.8
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +3.4|Blue -3.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Louis SmolkaTargetRyan MacDonald

By target zone

27
44% acc · 46%
Head
20
31% acc · 67%
31
60% acc · 53%
Body
6
55% acc · 20%
1
50% acc · 2%
Leg
4
100% acc · 13%

By position

57
51% acc · 97%
Distance
30
38% acc · 100%
2
67% acc · 3%
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Louis Smolka rounds
0
even
0
Ryan MacDonald rounds
Round 1Louis Smolka edged it
Sig. strikes59
Takedowns0
Control0:09
Knockdowns1
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
59 / 115
Sig Strikes
30 / 80
51%
Sig Str %
37%
60 / 116
Total Strikes
31 / 81
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:09
Ctrl Time
0:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ryan MacDonald30 / 8031 / 810 / 00
1Louis Smolka59 / 11560 / 1160 / 00

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17

Ryan MacDonald

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2