Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ray Borg won · U-DEC R3

Elo1425

Elo1492

Louis SmolkavsRay BorgUFC Prediction Result

UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · Friday, December 30, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ray Borg won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsRay Borg: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(64.0%)

Actual result: Ray Borg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Louis Smolka at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Louis Smolka has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Louis Smolka

Red Corner

Ray Borg

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1425

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'4"

172.72 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Louis SmolkaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19

SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20

KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20

KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21

KOvs Davey Grant · May 22

latest

Ray Borg

oldest →

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Oct 17

vs Casey Kenney · Mar 19

vs Gabriel Silva · Jul 19

vs Rogerio Bontorin · Feb 20

vs Ricky Simon · May 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Louis SmolkaMetricRay Borg

4.67

Strikes / min

1.52

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

1.93

53%

Strike defense

48%

1.69

TDs / 15 min

3.89

32%

Takedown defense

46%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56evenly matched on net striking-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Louis SmolkaRay Borg

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Louis Smolka(10 fights)Ray Borg(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -67.5|Blue +67.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +2.8|Blue -2.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -238.0|Blue +238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Louis SmolkaTargetRay Borg

By target zone

25% acc · 90%

Head

48% acc · 67%

14% acc · 10%

Body

75% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

20% acc · 80%

Distance

28% acc · 24%

67% acc · 20%

Clinch

80% acc · 19%

Ground

80% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Louis Smolka rounds

even

Ray Borg rounds

Round 1Ray Borg edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:38

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:06Control

Round 2Ray Borg edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:02

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:45Control

Round 3Ray Borg edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:05

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 43

Sig Strikes

21 / 38

21%

Sig Str %

53%

20 / 53

Total Strikes

33 / 53

0 / 1

TDs

4 / 8

TD %

63.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

10:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ray Borg	10 / 13	13 / 17	1 / 1	0
1	Louis Smolka	1 / 12	2 / 13	0 / 0	0
2	Ray Borg	8 / 16	13 / 22	1 / 2	0
2	Louis Smolka	2 / 8	8 / 14	0 / 1	1
3	Ray Borg	3 / 9	7 / 14	2 / 5	1
3	Louis Smolka	7 / 23	10 / 26	0 / 0	0

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Ray Borg

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights12