Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Matt Schnell won · SUB R1

Elo1425

Elo1465

Louis SmolkavsMatt SchnellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, March 9, 2019Wichita, Kansas, USA

Official fight result

Matt Schnell won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:18

Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsMatt Schnell: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Matt Schnell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Louis Smolka at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Louis Smolka is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Matt Schnell has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Matt Schnell threatens submissions; Louis Smolka has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Louis Smolka

Red Corner

Matt Schnell

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1425

Elo

1465

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Louis SmolkaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19

SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20

KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20

KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21

KOvs Davey Grant · May 22

latest

Matt SchnellL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24

SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24

vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Louis SmolkaMetricMatt Schnell

4.67

Strikes / min

4.07

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

53%

Strike defense

55%

1.69

TDs / 15 min

0.60

32%

Takedown defense

43%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56evenly matched on net striking-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Louis SmolkaMatt Schnell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Louis Smolka(10 fights)Matt Schnell(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.0|Blue +40.0

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Louis SmolkaTargetMatt Schnell

By target zone

53% acc · 69%

Head

31% acc · 79%

50% acc · 8%

Body

50% acc · 14%

60% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

52% acc · 92%

Distance

33% acc · 93%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Louis Smolka rounds

even

Matt Schnell rounds

Round 1Matt Schnell edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:18

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 24

Sig Strikes

14 / 40

54%

Sig Str %

35%

14 / 25

Total Strikes

16 / 42

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

0:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Schnell	14 / 40	16 / 42	1 / 1	2
1	Louis Smolka	13 / 24	14 / 25	0 / 0	0

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18