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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Louis Smolka won · KO/TKO

Elo1425

Elo1393

Louis SmolkavsJose QuinonezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · Saturday, December 5, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Louis Smolka won

KO/TKO

Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsJose Quinonez: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Louis Smolka wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Louis Smolka at -139 American odds

+$72 profit

$172 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Louis Smolka enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Louis Smolka is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jose Quinonez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Jose Quinonez has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jose Quinonez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Louis Smolka

Red Corner

Jose Quinonez

Blue Corner

-139

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+112

(47%)

1425

Elo

1393

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Louis SmolkaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Matt Schnell · Mar 19

KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19

SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20

KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21

KOvs Davey Grant · May 22

latest

Jose Quinonez

oldest →

vs Diego Rivas · Aug 17

vs Teruto Ishihara · Feb 18

SUBvs Nathaniel Wood · Mar 19

vs Carlos Huachin · Sep 19

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Mar 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Louis SmolkaMetricJose Quinonez

4.67

Strikes / min

3.60

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

53%

Strike defense

64%

1.69

TDs / 15 min

2.70

32%

Takedown defense

42%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Louis SmolkaJose Quinonez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Louis Smolka(10 fights)Jose Quinonez(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.3|Blue -32.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Louis SmolkaTargetJose Quinonez

By target zone

40% acc · 59%

Head

20% acc · 30%

82% acc · 31%

Body

52% acc · 28%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 42%

By position

44% acc · 58%

Distance

38% acc · 86%

81% acc · 22%

Clinch

50% acc · 9%

55% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Louis Smolka rounds

even

Jose Quinonez rounds

Round 1Louis Smolka edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns2

Control0:30

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Louis Smolka edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:39

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 116

Sig Strikes

43 / 107

50%

Sig Str %

40%

64 / 128

Total Strikes

47 / 113

3 / 4

TDs

2 / 3

83%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

1:09

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jose Quinonez	32 / 80	34 / 83	1 / 1
1	Louis Smolka	37 / 71	37 / 72	2 / 3
2	Jose Quinonez	11 / 27	13 / 30	1 / 2
2	Louis Smolka	22 / 45	27 / 56	1 / 1

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Jose Quinonez

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9