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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Casey Kenney won · SUB R1
Elo1425
Elo1406

Louis SmolkavsCasey KenneyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · Saturday, May 30, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Casey Kenney won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:03

Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsCasey Kenney: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Casey Kenney wins(51.3%)

Actual result: Casey Kenney wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Casey Kenney at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Casey Kenney has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Casey Kenney (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Louis Smolka
Red Corner
VS
Casey Kenney
Blue Corner
+230
(30%)
Vegas Odds
-270
(73%)
1425
Elo
1406
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Matt Schnell · Mar 19
W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19
W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20
L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21
L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22
latest
Casey KenneyL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 20
W
vs Heili Alateng · Oct 20
W
vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 20
L
vs Dominick Cruz · Mar 21
L
vs Song Yadong · Aug 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Louis SmolkaMetricCasey Kenney
4.67
Strikes / min
4.85
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
4.67
53%
Strike defense
58%
1.69
TDs / 15 min
1.09
32%
Takedown defense
61%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1510 vs 1518Strikes4.2 vs 3.4Takedowns1.6 vs 1.4Sub Atts2.10 vs 0.60Form0.2 vs 0.0
Louis SmolkaCasey Kenney

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Casey Kenney(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +18.9|Blue -18.9
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +2.9|Blue -2.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +154.0|Blue -154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Louis SmolkaTargetCasey Kenney

By target zone

4
25% acc · 22%
Head
15
44% acc · 47%
14
52% acc · 78%
Body
5
83% acc · 16%
0
Leg
12
100% acc · 38%

By position

16
39% acc · 89%
Distance
31
61% acc · 97%
2
100% acc · 11%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 3%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Louis Smolka rounds
0
even
1
Casey Kenney rounds
Round 1Casey Kenney edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
18 / 43
Sig Strikes
32 / 52
41%
Sig Str %
61%
18 / 43
Total Strikes
32 / 52
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:09

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Casey Kenney32 / 5232 / 520 / 01
1Louis Smolka18 / 4318 / 430 / 10

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17

Casey Kenney

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights8