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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Brandon Moreno won · SUB R1

Elo1425

Elo1487

Louis SmolkavsBrandon MorenoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · Saturday, October 1, 2016Portland, Oregon, USA

Official fight result

Brandon Moreno won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:23

Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsBrandon Moreno: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(81.0%)

Actual result: Brandon Moreno wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Louis Smolka at -525 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Moreno has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Louis Smolka

Red Corner

Brandon Moreno

Blue Corner

-525

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1425

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Louis SmolkaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19

SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20

KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20

KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21

KOvs Davey Grant · May 22

latest

Brandon MorenoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Feb 24

vs Amir Albazi · Nov 24

vs Steve Erceg · Mar 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 25

vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Louis SmolkaMetricBrandon Moreno

4.67

Strikes / min

3.84

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.64

53%

Strike defense

59%

1.69

TDs / 15 min

1.36

32%

Takedown defense

65%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Louis SmolkaBrandon Moreno

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Louis Smolka(10 fights)Brandon Moreno(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -61.7|Blue +61.7

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -46.5|Blue +46.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Louis SmolkaTargetBrandon Moreno

By target zone

50% acc · 86%

Head

70% acc · 88%

100% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

25% acc · 29%

Distance

75% acc · 38%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 71%

Ground

67% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Louis Smolka rounds

even

Brandon Moreno rounds

Round 1Brandon Moreno edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:18

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 13

Sig Strikes

8 / 11

53%

Sig Str %

72%

17 / 23

Total Strikes

21 / 24

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

1:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brandon Moreno	8 / 11	21 / 24	1 / 1	2
1	Louis Smolka	7 / 13	17 / 23	1 / 1	0

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Brandon Moreno

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18