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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Louis Smolka won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1425

Elo1369

Louis SmolkavsBen NguyenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · Wednesday, July 13, 2016Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA

Official fight result

Louis Smolka won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:41

Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsBen Nguyen: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Louis Smolka wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Louis Smolka at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ben Nguyen threatens submissions; Louis Smolka has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Ben Nguyen has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ben Nguyen (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Louis Smolka

Red Corner

Ben Nguyen

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1425

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Louis SmolkaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19

SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20

KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20

KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21

KOvs Davey Grant · May 22

latest

Ben NguyenL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Benoit · Nov 15

vs Geane Herrera · Nov 16

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Jun 17

SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Feb 18

vs Wilson Reis · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Louis SmolkaMetricBen Nguyen

4.67

Strikes / min

3.51

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

53%

Strike defense

59%

1.69

TDs / 15 min

0.25

32%

Takedown defense

63%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Louis SmolkaBen Nguyen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Louis Smolka(10 fights)Ben Nguyen(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +55.8|Blue -55.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Louis SmolkaTargetBen Nguyen

By target zone

71% acc · 91%

Head

33% acc · 50%

100% acc · 9%

Body

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

60% acc · 4%

Distance

33% acc · 50%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

73% acc · 96%

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Louis Smolka rounds

even

Ben Nguyen rounds

Round 1Louis Smolka edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns1

Control3:06

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:29Control

Round 2Louis Smolka edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns2

Control3:56

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

82 / 113

Sig Strikes

4 / 8

72.5%

Sig Str %

71%

138 / 178

Total Strikes

8 / 12

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:02

Ctrl Time

1:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ben Nguyen	3 / 7	7 / 11	0 / 0	1
1	Louis Smolka	43 / 61	59 / 79	1 / 2	2
2	Ben Nguyen	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0
2	Louis Smolka	39 / 52	79 / 99	2 / 4	5

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Ben Nguyen

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7