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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tim Elliott won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1500

Louis GaudinotvsTim ElliottUFC Prediction Result

UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · Saturday, August 31, 2013Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Tim Elliott won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Tim Elliott wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Tim Elliott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Elliott at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Louis Gaudinot threatens submissions; Tim Elliott has lost 42% of fights by sub.
Tim Elliott has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Louis Gaudinot

Red Corner

Tim Elliott

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1354

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'3"

Height

5'7"

160.02 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Louis Gaudinot

oldest →

KOvs Johnny Bedford · Dec 11

SUBvs John Lineker · May 12

vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Jan 15

latest

Tim Elliott

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23

SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25

DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Louis GaudinotMetricTim Elliott

2.34

Strikes / min

3.51

6.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

48%

Strike defense

56%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

3.61

31%

Takedown defense

59%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-4.08Δ 4.59 — meaningful gap+0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Louis GaudinotTim Elliott

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Louis Gaudinot(4 fights)Tim Elliott(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -146.0|Blue +146.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -2.3|Blue +2.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +224.0|Blue -224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Louis GaudinotTargetTim Elliott

By target zone

21% acc · 43%

Head

51% acc · 66%

75% acc · 21%

Body

76% acc · 22%

71% acc · 36%

Leg

88% acc · 12%

By position

33% acc · 82%

Distance

46% acc · 29%

56% acc · 18%

Clinch

91% acc · 17%

Ground

60% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Louis Gaudinot rounds

even

Tim Elliott rounds

Round 1Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:14

40Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:28Control

Round 2Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:14Control

Round 3Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

46Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 78

Sig Strikes

116 / 200

37.7%

Sig Str %

57.3%

41 / 95

Total Strikes

270 / 386

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 6

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

9:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Elliott	40 / 70	85 / 120	3 / 3	1
1	Louis Gaudinot	13 / 35	19 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Tim Elliott	30 / 61	68 / 111	1 / 1	1
2	Louis Gaudinot	11 / 34	15 / 39	0 / 0	0
3	Tim Elliott	46 / 69	117 / 155	2 / 2	0
3	Louis Gaudinot	4 / 9	7 / 13	0 / 0	0

Louis Gaudinot

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights4

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights21