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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Louis Gaudinot won · SUB R2
Elo1354
Louis Gaudinot
Elo1492
John Lineker

Louis GaudinotvsJohn LinekerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · Saturday, May 5, 2012East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Louis Gaudinot won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:54

Model Prediction: Louis Gaudinot wins(66.8%)

Actual result: Louis Gaudinot wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Louis Gaudinot at +245 American odds

+$245 profit

$345 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Louis Gaudinot enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • John Lineker has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • John Lineker has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Louis Gaudinot
Red Corner
VS
John Lineker
Blue Corner
+245
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-265
(73%)
1354
Elo
1492
41
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'3"
160.02 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Louis GaudinotL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Johnny Bedford · Dec 11
L
vs Tim Elliott · Aug 13
L
vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Jan 15
latest
John Lineker
oldest →
W
vs John Dodson · Oct 16
L
vs TJ Dillashaw · Dec 16
W
vs Marlon Vera · Oct 17
W
KOvs Brian Kelleher · May 18
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Apr 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Louis GaudinotMetricJohn Lineker
2.34
Strikes / min
5.36
6.42
Strikes absorbed / min
4.27
48%
Strike defense
56%
0.57
TDs / 15 min
0.56
31%
Takedown defense
67%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-4.08Δ 5.17 — meaningful gap+1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1500Strikes6.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Louis GaudinotJohn Lineker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Louis Gaudinot(4 fights)John Lineker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -137.5|Blue +137.5
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Louis GaudinotTargetJohn Lineker

By target zone

52
46% acc · 80%
Head
65
39% acc · 68%
11
65% acc · 17%
Body
25
63% acc · 26%
2
100% acc · 3%
Leg
6
86% acc · 6%

By position

51
48% acc · 78%
Distance
90
44% acc · 94%
2
40% acc · 3%
Clinch
3
60% acc · 3%
12
60% acc · 18%
Ground
3
100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Louis Gaudinot rounds
0
even
1
John Lineker rounds
Round 1John Lineker edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns1
Control1:33
64Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Louis Gaudinot edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns1
Control2:10
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
65 / 132
Sig Strikes
96 / 212
49%
Sig Str %
44%
94 / 169
Total Strikes
121 / 240
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:43
Ctrl Time
0:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Lineker64 / 13379 / 1500 / 00
1Louis Gaudinot36 / 7744 / 881 / 10
2John Lineker32 / 7942 / 900 / 00
2Louis Gaudinot29 / 5550 / 811 / 11

Louis Gaudinot

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights4

John Lineker

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights16