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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Derek Brunson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1454

Lorenz LarkinvsDerek BrunsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · Saturday, August 30, 2014Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Derek Brunson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLorenz Larkin: Elusive strikervsDerek Brunson: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(52.9%)

Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derek Brunson at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lorenz Larkin is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Derek Brunson has lost 86% of fights by KO.
Lorenz Larkin has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).
Derek Brunson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Lorenz Larkin

Red Corner

Derek Brunson

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1491

Elo

1454

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lorenz LarkinW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Howard · Jan 15

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 15

vs Albert Tumenov · Jan 16

vs Jorge Masvidal · May 16

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 16

latest

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lorenz LarkinMetricDerek Brunson

3.53

Strikes / min

3.51

2.74

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

63%

Strike defense

51%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

3.14

79%

Takedown defense

85%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.79evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lorenz LarkinDerek Brunson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)Derek Brunson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.3|Blue -36.3

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -115.0|Blue +115.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lorenz LarkinTargetDerek Brunson

By target zone

29% acc · 35%

Head

37% acc · 83%

87% acc · 65%

Body

100% acc · 17%

0% acc

Leg

0% acc

By position

44% acc · 75%

Distance

18% acc · 33%

83% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lorenz Larkin rounds

even

Derek Brunson rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:38Control

Round 2Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:08Control

Round 3Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 40

Sig Strikes

12 / 30

49.7%

Sig Str %

33%

32 / 53

Total Strikes

98 / 125

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 12

—

TD %

38.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

10:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Derek Brunson	9 / 17	42 / 56	1 / 6	1
1	Lorenz Larkin	7 / 14	11 / 18	0 / 0	0
2	Derek Brunson	1 / 7	22 / 31	2 / 3	0
2	Lorenz Larkin	5 / 13	9 / 17	0 / 0	0
3	Derek Brunson	2 / 6	34 / 38	1 / 3	0
3	Lorenz Larkin	8 / 13	12 / 18	0 / 0	0

Lorenz Larkin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21