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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brad Tavares won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1481

Lorenz LarkinvsBrad TavaresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · Wednesday, January 15, 2014Duluth, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Brad Tavares won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLorenz Larkin: Elusive strikervsBrad Tavares: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Brad Tavares wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Brad Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Tavares at +240 American odds

+$240 profit

$340 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lorenz Larkin is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Brad Tavares has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Lorenz Larkin

Red Corner

Brad Tavares

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1491

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lorenz LarkinW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Howard · Jan 15

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 15

vs Albert Tumenov · Jan 16

vs Jorge Masvidal · May 16

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 16

latest

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lorenz LarkinMetricBrad Tavares

3.53

Strikes / min

3.41

2.74

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

63%

Strike defense

54%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

0.70

79%

Takedown defense

80%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.79evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lorenz LarkinBrad Tavares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)Brad Tavares(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.8|Blue -9.8

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lorenz LarkinTargetBrad Tavares

By target zone

29% acc · 72%

Head

30% acc · 42%

33% acc · 3%

Body

41% acc · 24%

71% acc · 26%

Leg

71% acc · 33%

By position

28% acc · 54%

Distance

42% acc · 98%

49% acc · 46%

Clinch

17% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lorenz Larkin rounds

even

Brad Tavares rounds

Round 1Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 2Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:19

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 3Lorenz Larkin edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:23

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 113

Sig Strikes

45 / 112

36%

Sig Str %

39.7%

43 / 117

Total Strikes

62 / 132

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 9

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:42

Ctrl Time

3:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brad Tavares	15 / 37	18 / 40	1 / 1
1	Lorenz Larkin	8 / 29	8 / 29	0 / 0
2	Brad Tavares	16 / 36	30 / 53	1 / 2
2	Lorenz Larkin	8 / 17	8 / 17	0 / 0
3	Brad Tavares	14 / 39	14 / 39	0 / 6
3	Lorenz Larkin	23 / 67	27 / 71	0 / 0

Lorenz Larkin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28