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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Albert Tumenov won · S-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1358

Lorenz LarkinvsAlbert TumenovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · Saturday, January 2, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Albert Tumenov won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLorenz Larkin: Elusive strikervsAlbert Tumenov: Striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Albert Tumenov wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Albert Tumenov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Albert Tumenov at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lorenz Larkin enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Lorenz Larkin

Red Corner

Albert Tumenov

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1491

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lorenz LarkinW4 streak

oldest →

vs Derek Brunson · Aug 14

KOvs John Howard · Jan 15

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 15

vs Jorge Masvidal · May 16

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 16

latest

Albert TumenovL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Dwyer · Oct 14

DECvs Nico Musoke · Jan 15

KOvs Alan Jouban · Oct 15

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · May 16

SUBvs Leon Edwards · Oct 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lorenz LarkinMetricAlbert Tumenov

3.53

Strikes / min

3.76

2.74

Strikes absorbed / min

3.34

63%

Strike defense

58%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

0.20

79%

Takedown defense

75%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.79evenly matched on net striking+0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lorenz LarkinAlbert Tumenov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)Albert Tumenov(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.4|Blue -132.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lorenz LarkinTargetAlbert Tumenov

By target zone

14% acc · 17%

Head

31% acc · 68%

83% acc · 14%

Body

86% acc · 25%

80% acc · 68%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

45% acc · 99%

Distance

39% acc · 93%

25% acc · 1%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lorenz Larkin rounds

even

Albert Tumenov rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Albert Tumenov edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Lorenz Larkin edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:14

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 155

Sig Strikes

76 / 194

44.3%

Sig Str %

38%

69 / 155

Total Strikes

76 / 194

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Albert Tumenov	17 / 50	17 / 50	0 / 0
1	Lorenz Larkin	18 / 39	18 / 39	0 / 0
2	Albert Tumenov	36 / 84	36 / 84	0 / 1
2	Lorenz Larkin	24 / 56	24 / 56	0 / 0
3	Albert Tumenov	23 / 60	23 / 60	0 / 1
3	Lorenz Larkin	27 / 60	27 / 60	0 / 2

Lorenz Larkin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

Albert Tumenov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8