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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Lone'er Kavanagh won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1518

Lone'er KavanaghvsJose OchoaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, November 23, 2024Macau, China

Official fight result

Lone'er Kavanagh won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLone'er Kavanagh: Well-roundedvsJose Ochoa: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Jose Ochoa wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Lone'er Kavanagh wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jose Ochoa at +250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jose Ochoa is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Lone'er Kavanagh has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Lone'er Kavanagh has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jose Ochoa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Lone'er Kavanagh

Red Corner

Jose Ochoa

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1500

Elo

1518

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lone'er Kavanagh

oldest →

vs Felipe dos Santos · Mar 25

KOvs Charles Johnson · Aug 25

vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 26

SUBvs Brandon Royval · Jul 26

latest

Jose Ochoa

oldest →

KOvs Cody Durden · Jun 25

vs Asu Almabayev · Jul 25

DECvs Clayton Carpenter · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lone'er KavanaghMetricJose Ochoa

4.13

Strikes / min

5.16

3.49

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

56%

Strike defense

58%

1.12

TDs / 15 min

0.30

94%

Takedown defense

65%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.64Δ 1.53 — meaningful gap+2.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lone'er KavanaghJose Ochoa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lone'er Kavanagh(5 fights)Jose Ochoa(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.5|Blue +18.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lone'er KavanaghTargetJose Ochoa

By target zone

32% acc · 47%

Head

17% acc · 26%

43% acc · 24%

Body

33% acc · 26%

63% acc · 29%

Leg

60% acc · 48%

By position

40% acc · 98%

Distance

31% acc · 98%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lone'er Kavanagh rounds

even

Jose Ochoa rounds

Round 1Lone'er Kavanagh edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jose Ochoa edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 126

Sig Strikes

50 / 158

39.7%

Sig Str %

32%

51 / 126

Total Strikes

59 / 168

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jose Ochoa	19 / 44	19 / 44	0 / 0	0
1	Lone'er Kavanagh	21 / 45	21 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Jose Ochoa	20 / 60	29 / 70	0 / 0	1
2	Lone'er Kavanagh	18 / 46	18 / 46	0 / 2	0
3	Jose Ochoa	11 / 54	11 / 54	0 / 1	0
3	Lone'er Kavanagh	12 / 35	12 / 35	0 / 0	0

Lone'er Kavanagh

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights5

Jose Ochoa

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4