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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Lone'er Kavanagh won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1485

Lone'er KavanaghvsFelipe dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Saturday, March 22, 2025London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Lone'er Kavanagh won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Lone'er Kavanagh wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Lone'er Kavanagh wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lone'er Kavanagh at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lone'er Kavanagh has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Lone'er Kavanagh has 74pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Lone'er Kavanagh

Red Corner

Felipe dos Santos

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1500

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lone'er Kavanagh

oldest →

vs Jose Ochoa · Nov 24

KOvs Charles Johnson · Aug 25

vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 26

SUBvs Brandon Royval · Jul 26

latest

Felipe dos Santos

oldest →

vs Manel Kape · Sep 23

vs Victor Altamirano · Feb 24

vs Andre Lima · Sep 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lone'er KavanaghMetricFelipe dos Santos

4.13

Strikes / min

3.75

3.49

Strikes absorbed / min

3.80

56%

Strike defense

41%

1.12

TDs / 15 min

0.00

94%

Takedown defense

20%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.64evenly matched on net striking-0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lone'er KavanaghFelipe dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lone'er Kavanagh(5 fights)Felipe dos Santos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.0|Blue -15.0

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lone'er KavanaghTargetFelipe dos Santos

By target zone

52% acc · 64%

Head

42% acc · 55%

73% acc · 19%

Body

43% acc · 18%

91% acc · 17%

Leg

88% acc · 27%

By position

52% acc · 50%

Distance

36% acc · 55%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

74% acc · 45%

Ground

83% acc · 37%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lone'er Kavanagh rounds

even

Felipe dos Santos rounds

Round 1Felipe dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:39

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 2Lone'er Kavanagh edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns2

Control3:36

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 3Lone'er Kavanagh edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control2:18

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 97

Sig Strikes

51 / 104

60.3%

Sig Str %

48.3%

71 / 112

Total Strikes

92 / 147

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 3

66%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:33

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Felipe dos Santos	15 / 32	23 / 40	0 / 2	0
1	Lone'er Kavanagh	11 / 23	11 / 23	0 / 0	0
2	Felipe dos Santos	25 / 36	45 / 58	0 / 1	0
2	Lone'er Kavanagh	29 / 51	42 / 66	2 / 3	0
3	Felipe dos Santos	11 / 36	24 / 49	0 / 0	1
3	Lone'er Kavanagh	18 / 23	18 / 23	2 / 3	0

Lone'er Kavanagh

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights5

Felipe dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4