← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Trey Ogden won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1505

Loik RadzhabovvsTrey OgdenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Saturday, July 20, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Trey Ogden won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLoik Radzhabov: WrestlervsTrey Ogden: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Trey Ogden wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Trey Ogden wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trey Ogden has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Loik Radzhabov

Red Corner

Trey Ogden

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1499

Elo

1505

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Loik Radzhabov

oldest →

vs Esteban Ribovics · Mar 23

KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · Jun 23

KOvs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady · Mar 24

latest

Trey Ogden

oldest →

vs Jordan Leavitt · Apr 22

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 22

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 23

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 24

vs Thiago Moises · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Loik RadzhabovMetricTrey Ogden

2.89

Strikes / min

3.20

3.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.49

46%

Strike defense

55%

4.65

TDs / 15 min

1.89

42%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Loik RadzhabovTrey Ogden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Loik Radzhabov(4 fights)Trey Ogden(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.2|Blue +5.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Loik RadzhabovTargetTrey Ogden

By target zone

49% acc · 90%

Head

40% acc · 58%

33% acc · 5%

Body

100% acc · 21%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

71% acc · 21%

By position

41% acc · 55%

Distance

48% acc · 88%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

62% acc · 43%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Loik Radzhabov rounds

even

Trey Ogden rounds

Round 1Trey Ogden edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:35Control

Round 2Trey Ogden edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:03

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:05Control

Round 3Loik Radzhabov edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:33

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 86

Sig Strikes

24 / 47

49.3%

Sig Str %

45%

97 / 157

Total Strikes

116 / 148

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 5

—

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:36

Ctrl Time

9:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Trey Ogden	1 / 3	40 / 47	2 / 2	0
1	Loik Radzhabov	2 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 0	0
2	Trey Ogden	22 / 42	41 / 61	1 / 2	2
2	Loik Radzhabov	22 / 49	33 / 60	0 / 0	0
3	Trey Ogden	1 / 2	35 / 40	1 / 1	0
3	Loik Radzhabov	18 / 33	62 / 93	0 / 0	0

Loik Radzhabov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Trey Ogden

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6