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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Liz Carmouche won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1491

Liz CarmouchevsLucie PudilovaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · Saturday, February 23, 2019Prague, Czech Republic

Official fight result

Liz Carmouche won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLiz Carmouche: WrestlervsLucie Pudilova: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Liz Carmouche wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Liz Carmouche wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Liz Carmouche at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lucie Pudilova enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Liz Carmouche has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Liz Carmouche

Red Corner

Lucie Pudilova

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1492

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Liz Carmouche

oldest →

vs Lauren Murphy · Apr 15

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 16

vs Alexis Davis · Dec 17

vs Jennifer Maia · Jul 18

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Aug 19

latest

Lucie PudilovaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Antonina Shevchenko · Aug 19

KOvs Wu Yanan · Aug 22

vs Joselyne Edwards · Apr 23

vs Ailin Perez · Nov 23

vs Luana Carolina · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Liz CarmoucheMetricLucie Pudilova

2.78

Strikes / min

3.60

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

61%

Strike defense

50%

2.57

TDs / 15 min

0.70

65%

Takedown defense

67%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Liz CarmoucheLucie Pudilova

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Liz Carmouche(10 fights)Lucie Pudilova(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -2.3|Blue +2.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Liz CarmoucheTargetLucie Pudilova

By target zone

25% acc · 21%

Head

17% acc · 39%

50% acc · 29%

Body

50% acc · 9%

78% acc · 50%

Leg

77% acc · 52%

By position

38% acc · 64%

Distance

19% acc · 45%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

100% acc · 21%

Ground

80% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Liz Carmouche rounds

even

Lucie Pudilova rounds

Round 1Liz Carmouche edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control4:10

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:53

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 3Lucie Pudilova edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:56

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 29

Sig Strikes

33 / 105

58.7%

Sig Str %

30%

40 / 56

Total Strikes

57 / 133

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:59

Ctrl Time

1:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lucie Pudilova	6 / 20	18 / 33	0 / 1	2
1	Liz Carmouche	4 / 4	25 / 26	1 / 1	0
2	Lucie Pudilova	8 / 35	9 / 36	0 / 0	0
2	Liz Carmouche	3 / 10	5 / 12	1 / 1	0
3	Lucie Pudilova	19 / 50	30 / 64	0 / 0	0
3	Liz Carmouche	7 / 15	10 / 18	1 / 1	2

Liz Carmouche

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10

Lucie Pudilova

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights10