Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Liz Carmouche won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1493

Liz CarmouchevsLauren MurphyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · Saturday, April 4, 2015Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Liz Carmouche won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLiz Carmouche: WrestlervsLauren Murphy: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Lauren Murphy wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Liz Carmouche wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lauren Murphy at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Liz Carmouche

Red Corner

Lauren Murphy

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1492

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Liz Carmouche

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 16

vs Alexis Davis · Dec 17

vs Jennifer Maia · Jul 18

vs Lucie Pudilova · Feb 19

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Aug 19

latest

Lauren MurphyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 21

KOvs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 21

vs Miesha Tate · Jul 22

vs Jessica Andrade · Jan 23

vs Eduarda Moura · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Liz CarmoucheMetricLauren Murphy

2.78

Strikes / min

3.94

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

5.19

61%

Strike defense

56%

2.57

TDs / 15 min

1.09

65%

Takedown defense

67%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Liz CarmoucheLauren Murphy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Liz Carmouche(10 fights)Lauren Murphy(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Liz CarmoucheTargetLauren Murphy

By target zone

44% acc · 50%

Head

10% acc · 13%

67% acc · 21%

Body

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 29%

Leg

93% acc · 83%

By position

48% acc · 63%

Distance

18% acc · 26%

87% acc · 34%

Clinch

91% acc · 63%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Liz Carmouche rounds

even

Lauren Murphy rounds

Round 1Lauren Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:23Control

Round 2Liz Carmouche edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:48Control

Round 3Lauren Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control1:36

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:18Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 66

Sig Strikes

46 / 102

54.3%

Sig Str %

44.3%

149 / 189

Total Strikes

67 / 127

2 / 8

TDs

2 / 9

22%

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

1:36

Ctrl Time

7:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lauren Murphy	18 / 37	19 / 39	1 / 3
1	Liz Carmouche	16 / 23	59 / 72	0 / 4
2	Lauren Murphy	8 / 32	10 / 36	0 / 3
2	Liz Carmouche	18 / 25	53 / 62	0 / 1
3	Lauren Murphy	20 / 33	38 / 52	1 / 3
3	Liz Carmouche	4 / 18	37 / 55	2 / 3

Liz Carmouche

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10

Lauren Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15