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Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Liz Carmouche won · S-DEC R3
Elo1492
Elo1497

Liz CarmouchevsKatlyn ChookagianUFC Prediction Result

UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · Saturday, November 12, 2016New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Liz Carmouche won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Katlyn Chookagian wins(54.6%)

Actual result: Liz Carmouche wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Katlyn Chookagian at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Liz Carmouche
Red Corner
VS
Katlyn Chookagian
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-165
(62%)
1492
Elo
1497
42
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'9"
167.64 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Liz Carmouche
oldest →
W
vs Lauren Murphy · Apr 15
L
vs Alexis Davis · Dec 17
W
vs Jennifer Maia · Jul 18
W
vs Lucie Pudilova · Feb 19
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Aug 19
latest
Katlyn Chookagian
oldest →
W
vs Cynthia Calvillo · Nov 20
W
vs Viviane Araujo · May 21
W
vs Jennifer Maia · Jan 22
W
vs Amanda Ribas · May 22
L
vs Manon Fiorot · Oct 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Liz CarmoucheMetricKatlyn Chookagian
2.78
Strikes / min
—
2.51
Strikes absorbed / min
—
61%
Strike defense
—
2.57
TDs / 15 min
—
65%
Takedown defense
—
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1515Strikes30.6 vs 45.0Takedowns2.2 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs 1.0
Liz CarmoucheKatlyn Chookagian

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Liz Carmouche(10 fights)Katlyn Chookagian(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -5.7|Blue +5.7
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +466.0|Blue -466.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Liz Carmouche

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights10

Katlyn Chookagian

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights12