Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Liz Carmouche won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1492

Elo1484

Liz CarmouchevsJessica AndradeUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · Saturday, July 27, 2013Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Liz Carmouche won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:57

Style matchupLiz Carmouche: WrestlervsJessica Andrade: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Liz Carmouche wins(75.9%)

Actual result: Liz Carmouche wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Liz Carmouche at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Andrade enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Liz Carmouche has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Liz Carmouche

Red Corner

Jessica Andrade

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+435

(19%)

1492

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'1"

167.64 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Liz Carmouche

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 16

vs Alexis Davis · Dec 17

vs Jennifer Maia · Jul 18

vs Lucie Pudilova · Feb 19

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Aug 19

latest

Jessica AndradeL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mackenzie Dern · Nov 23

vs Marina Rodriguez · Apr 24

vs Natalia Silva · Sep 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · May 25

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Liz CarmoucheMetricJessica Andrade

2.78

Strikes / min

6.37

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

5.58

61%

Strike defense

54%

2.57

TDs / 15 min

2.10

65%

Takedown defense

75%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27evenly matched on net striking+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Liz CarmoucheJessica Andrade

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Liz Carmouche(10 fights)Jessica Andrade(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.2|Blue -8.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Liz CarmoucheTargetJessica Andrade

By target zone

58% acc · 90%

Head

38% acc · 30%

100% acc · 2%

Body

100% acc · 40%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

67% acc · 12%

Distance

50% acc · 40%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

60% acc · 86%

Ground

50% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Liz Carmouche rounds

even

Jessica Andrade rounds

Round 1Liz Carmouche edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control4:20

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Liz Carmouche edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns1

Control3:33

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 83

Sig Strikes

10 / 15

71%

Sig Str %

63.5%

114 / 166

Total Strikes

14 / 20

3 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:53

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jessica Andrade	7 / 9	11 / 14	1 / 1	1
1	Liz Carmouche	6 / 7	35 / 40	2 / 2	0
2	Jessica Andrade	3 / 6	3 / 6	0 / 0	0
2	Liz Carmouche	44 / 76	79 / 126	1 / 1	1

Liz Carmouche

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10

Jessica Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights30