Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Liz Carmouche won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
Elo1499

Liz CarmouchevsJennifer MaiaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · Saturday, July 14, 2018Boise, Idaho, USA

Official fight result

Liz Carmouche won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLiz Carmouche: WrestlervsJennifer Maia: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Liz Carmouche wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Liz Carmouche wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Liz Carmouche at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Liz Carmouche
Red Corner
VS
Jennifer Maia
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
1492
Elo
1499
42
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'4"
167.64 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Liz Carmouche
oldest →
W
vs Lauren Murphy · Apr 15
W
vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 16
L
vs Alexis Davis · Dec 17
W
vs Lucie Pudilova · Feb 19
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Aug 19
latest
Jennifer Maia
oldest →
L
vs Katlyn Chookagian · Jan 22
L
vs Manon Fiorot · Mar 22
W
vs Maryna Moroz · Nov 22
W
vs Casey O'Neill · Mar 23
L
vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Liz CarmoucheMetricJennifer Maia
2.78
Strikes / min
4.35
2.51
Strikes absorbed / min
4.52
61%
Strike defense
55%
2.57
TDs / 15 min
0.42
65%
Takedown defense
58%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1489 vs 1500Strikes32.7 vs —Takedowns2.7 vs —Sub Atts0.29 vs —Form-0.4 vs 0.0
Liz CarmoucheJennifer Maia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Liz Carmouche(10 fights)Jennifer Maia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -7.5|Blue +7.5
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -48.5|Blue +48.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Liz CarmoucheTargetJennifer Maia

By target zone

32
56% acc · 60%
Head
19
26% acc · 45%
12
100% acc · 23%
Body
14
61% acc · 33%
9
100% acc · 17%
Leg
9
100% acc · 21%

By position

31
56% acc · 58%
Distance
30
35% acc · 71%
3
100% acc · 6%
Clinch
10
63% acc · 24%
19
95% acc · 36%
Ground
2
100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Liz Carmouche rounds
0
even
0
Jennifer Maia rounds
Round 1Liz Carmouche edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control0:39
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:26Control
Round 2Liz Carmouche edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control0:51
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:03Control
Round 3Liz Carmouche edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control3:53
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
53 / 78
Sig Strikes
42 / 104
68.7%
Sig Str %
39%
109 / 135
Total Strikes
55 / 118
3 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
83.3%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:23
Ctrl Time
2:29

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jennifer Maia17 / 3718 / 390 / 00
1Liz Carmouche19 / 2647 / 541 / 20
2Jennifer Maia17 / 4422 / 490 / 00
2Liz Carmouche20 / 3338 / 521 / 10
3Jennifer Maia8 / 2315 / 300 / 00
3Liz Carmouche14 / 1924 / 291 / 10

Liz Carmouche

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights10

Jennifer Maia

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights12