Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Livinha Souza won · S-DEC R3

Elo1410

Elo1375

Livinha SouzavsSarah FrotaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · Saturday, February 2, 2019Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Livinha Souza won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLivinha Souza: WrestlervsSarah Frota: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Livinha Souza wins(68.7%)

Actual result: Livinha Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Livinha Souza at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Sarah Frota (53.5%).
Sarah Frota has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Livinha Souza

Red Corner

Sarah Frota

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1410

Elo

1375

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'3"

Height

5'6"

160.02 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Livinha SouzaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Chambers · Sep 18

vs Brianna Van Buren · Jul 19

vs Ashley Yoder · Aug 20

KOvs Amanda Lemos · Mar 21

vs Randa Markos · Oct 21

latest

Sarah Frota

oldest →

KOvs Gillian Robertson · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Livinha SouzaMetricSarah Frota

1.75

Strikes / min

4.52

3.60

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

56%

Strike defense

55%

2.54

TDs / 15 min

0.00

40%

Takedown defense

53%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.85Δ 3.80 — meaningful gap+1.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Livinha SouzaSarah Frota

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Livinha Souza(6 fights)Sarah Frota(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.6|Blue -35.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Livinha SouzaTargetSarah Frota

By target zone

29% acc · 61%

Head

32% acc · 72%

60% acc · 26%

Body

58% acc · 22%

50% acc · 13%

Leg

33% acc · 6%

By position

33% acc · 65%

Distance

29% acc · 72%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

31% acc · 22%

Ground

83% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Livinha Souza rounds

even

Sarah Frota rounds

Round 1Livinha Souza edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:02

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:39Control

Round 2Livinha Souza edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns3

Control2:34

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3Sarah Frota edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:05

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 65

Sig Strikes

32 / 90

40%

Sig Str %

33%

75 / 118

Total Strikes

78 / 143

4 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

36%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:41

Ctrl Time

4:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sarah Frota	4 / 15	30 / 47	0 / 0	0
1	Livinha Souza	11 / 16	28 / 33	1 / 3	2
2	Sarah Frota	11 / 32	11 / 32	0 / 0	0
2	Livinha Souza	5 / 29	34 / 58	3 / 4	1
3	Sarah Frota	17 / 43	37 / 64	0 / 0	0
3	Livinha Souza	7 / 20	13 / 27	0 / 3	0

Livinha Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights6

Sarah Frota

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2