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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Amanda Lemos won · KO/TKO

Elo1410

Elo1488

Livinha SouzavsAmanda LemosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Saturday, March 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Amanda Lemos won

KO/TKO

Style matchupLivinha Souza: WrestlervsAmanda Lemos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Amanda Lemos wins(72.5%)

Actual result: Amanda Lemos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Lemos at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Livinha Souza has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Amanda Lemos has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Amanda Lemos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Livinha Souza

Red Corner

Amanda Lemos

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1410

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'3"

Height

5'4"

160.02 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Livinha Souza

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Chambers · Sep 18

vs Sarah Frota · Feb 19

vs Brianna Van Buren · Jul 19

vs Ashley Yoder · Aug 20

vs Randa Markos · Oct 21

latest

Amanda LemosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mackenzie Dern · Feb 24

SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Jul 24

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Mar 25

vs Tatiana Suarez · Sep 25

vs Gillian Robertson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Livinha SouzaMetricAmanda Lemos

1.75

Strikes / min

2.75

3.60

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

56%

Strike defense

45%

2.54

TDs / 15 min

1.02

40%

Takedown defense

63%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.85Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Livinha SouzaAmanda Lemos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Livinha Souza(6 fights)Amanda Lemos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -78.0|Blue +78.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Livinha SouzaTargetAmanda Lemos

By target zone

0% acc

Head

59% acc · 76%

0% acc

Body

60% acc · 10%

50% acc · 100%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

14% acc · 100%

Distance

55% acc · 41%

Clinch

Ground

71% acc · 59%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Livinha Souza rounds

even

Amanda Lemos rounds

Round 1Amanda Lemos edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:13Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 7

Sig Strikes

29 / 46

14%

Sig Str %

63%

1 / 7

Total Strikes

30 / 47

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Amanda Lemos	29 / 46	30 / 47	0 / 0	0
1	Livinha Souza	1 / 7	1 / 7	0 / 0	0

Livinha Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights6

Amanda Lemos

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights15