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Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Livinha Souza won · SUB R1
Elo1410
Elo1368
Alex Chambers

Livinha SouzavsAlex ChambersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · Saturday, September 22, 2018Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Livinha Souza won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:21

Style matchupLivinha Souza: WrestlervsAlex Chambers: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Alex Chambers wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Livinha Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Chambers at +1000 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Alex Chambers (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Livinha Souza
Red Corner
VS
Alex Chambers
Blue Corner
-1500
(94%)
Vegas Odds
+1000
(9%)
1410
Elo
1368
35
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'3"
Height
5'3"
160.02 cm
Reach
160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Livinha SouzaL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Sarah Frota · Feb 19
L
vs Brianna Van Buren · Jul 19
W
vs Ashley Yoder · Aug 20
L
KOvs Amanda Lemos · Mar 21
L
vs Randa Markos · Oct 21
latest
Alex ChambersL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Aisling Daly · Dec 14
W
SUBvs Kailin Curran · May 15
L
SUBvs Paige VanZant · Sep 15
L
vs Nadia Kassem · Nov 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Livinha SouzaMetricAlex Chambers
1.75
Strikes / min
2.97
3.60
Strikes absorbed / min
5.10
56%
Strike defense
50%
2.54
TDs / 15 min
2.31
40%
Takedown defense
53%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.85evenly matched on net striking-2.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1470Strikes— vs 32.8Takedowns— vs 1.8Sub Atts— vs 0.75Form0.0 vs -0.9
Livinha SouzaAlex Chambers

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Livinha Souza(6 fights)Alex Chambers(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +42.6|Blue -42.6
Recent Form
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score
Red +48.7|Blue -48.7
Grappler Score
Red +49.6|Blue -49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Livinha SouzaTargetAlex Chambers

By target zone

7
50% acc · 70%
Head
4
44% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 10%
Body
0
2
67% acc · 20%
Leg
0

By position

6
67% acc · 60%
Distance
3
43% acc · 75%
2
40% acc · 20%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 25%
2
50% acc · 20%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Livinha Souza rounds
0
even
0
Alex Chambers rounds
Round 1Livinha Souza edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control0:39
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
10 / 18
Sig Strikes
4 / 9
55%
Sig Str %
44%
10 / 18
Total Strikes
4 / 9
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:39
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alex Chambers4 / 94 / 90 / 00
1Livinha Souza10 / 1810 / 181 / 11

Livinha Souza

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights6

Alex Chambers

StanceSouthpaw
Height63.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights5