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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Khamzat Chimaev won · SUB R1
Elo1495
Li Jingliang
Elo1517
Khamzat Chimaev

Li JingliangvsKhamzat ChimaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Saturday, October 30, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Khamzat Chimaev won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:16

Style matchupLi Jingliang: Pressure fightervsKhamzat Chimaev: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev wins(85.9%)

Actual result: Khamzat Chimaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khamzat Chimaev at -435 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Khamzat Chimaev has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Khamzat Chimaev has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Li Jingliang
Red Corner
VS
Khamzat Chimaev
Blue Corner
+330
(23%)
Vegas Odds
-435
(81%)
1495
Elo
1517
38
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Li JingliangL2 streak
oldest →
L
DECvs Neil Magny · Mar 20
W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 21
W
KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 22
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Sep 22
L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 24
latest
Khamzat Chimaev
oldest →
W
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Sep 22
W
vs Kamaru Usman · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Robert Whittaker · Oct 24
W
vs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 25
L
DECvs Sean Strickland · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Li JingliangMetricKhamzat Chimaev
4.46
Strikes / min
4.01
3.95
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
56%
Strike defense
52%
1.19
TDs / 15 min
5.32
60%
Takedown defense
87%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.51evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1584 vs 1552Strikes4.5 vs 5.7Takedowns1.2 vs 4.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 2.70Form0.6 vs 1.0
Li JingliangKhamzat Chimaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Li Jingliang(10 fights)Khamzat Chimaev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -22.1|Blue +22.1
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Layoff
Red -119.0|Blue +119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Li JingliangTargetKhamzat Chimaev

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
25
100% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
100% acc · 4%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
24
100% acc · 96%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Li Jingliang rounds
0
even
1
Khamzat Chimaev rounds
Round 1Khamzat Chimaev edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:01Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 1
Sig Strikes
25 / 25
0%
Sig Str %
100%
0 / 1
Total Strikes
58 / 62
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
3
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
3:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Khamzat Chimaev25 / 2558 / 621 / 23
1Li Jingliang0 / 10 / 10 / 00

Li Jingliang

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights17

Khamzat Chimaev

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10