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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Daniel Rodriguez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1520

Li JingliangvsDaniel RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Saturday, September 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Rodriguez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLi Jingliang: Pressure fightervsDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Daniel Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Rodriguez at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Rodriguez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Li Jingliang

Red Corner

Daniel Rodriguez

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1495

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Li Jingliang

oldest →

DECvs Neil Magny · Mar 20

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 21

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 21

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 22

KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 24

latest

Daniel RodriguezW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24

vs Alex Morono · Oct 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25

vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Li JingliangMetricDaniel Rodriguez

4.46

Strikes / min

7.20

3.95

Strikes absorbed / min

5.40

56%

Strike defense

57%

1.19

TDs / 15 min

0.51

60%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Li JingliangDaniel Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Li Jingliang(10 fights)Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.5|Blue +25.5

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -322.0|Blue +322.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Li JingliangTargetDaniel Rodriguez

By target zone

24% acc · 32%

Head

39% acc · 61%

68% acc · 29%

Body

74% acc · 19%

79% acc · 38%

Leg

77% acc · 19%

By position

45% acc · 100%

Distance

48% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Li Jingliang rounds

even

Daniel Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Li Jingliang edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control0:02

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 175

Sig Strikes

88 / 185

44.3%

Sig Str %

48%

78 / 175

Total Strikes

89 / 186

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Rodriguez	20 / 40	20 / 40	0 / 0
1	Li Jingliang	27 / 54	27 / 54	0 / 0
2	Daniel Rodriguez	34 / 66	35 / 67	0 / 0
2	Li Jingliang	24 / 59	24 / 59	1 / 1
3	Daniel Rodriguez	34 / 79	34 / 79	0 / 0
3	Li Jingliang	27 / 62	27 / 62	0 / 0

Li Jingliang

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17

Daniel Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14