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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Leslie Smith won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1357

Leslie SmithvsRin NakaiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · Saturday, March 19, 2016Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Leslie Smith won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLeslie Smith: Pressure fightervsRin Nakai: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rin Nakai wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Leslie Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rin Nakai at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leslie Smith has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Leslie Smith

Red Corner

Rin Nakai

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1491

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'1"

167.64 cm

Reach

152.4 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leslie SmithW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jessamyn Duke · Jul 14

KOvs Jessica Eye · Nov 14

KOvs Cris Cyborg · May 16

vs Irene Aldana · Dec 16

KOvs Amanda Lemos · Jul 17

latest

Rin Nakai

oldest →

vs Miesha Tate · Sep 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leslie SmithMetricRin Nakai

7.56

Strikes / min

1.57

8.41

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

51%

Strike defense

60%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.00

62%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap-2.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leslie SmithRin Nakai

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leslie Smith(7 fights)Rin Nakai(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.2|Blue -134.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leslie SmithTargetRin Nakai

By target zone

31% acc · 82%

Head

32% acc · 84%

79% acc · 18%

Body

44% acc · 13%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

34% acc · 95%

Distance

28% acc · 71%

60% acc · 5%

Clinch

75% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leslie Smith rounds

even

Rin Nakai rounds

Round 1Leslie Smith edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 2Rin Nakai edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:28Control

Round 3Leslie Smith edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:02

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 181

Sig Strikes

31 / 92

34.3%

Sig Str %

26%

72 / 193

Total Strikes

58 / 124

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 13

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

5:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rin Nakai	22 / 50	25 / 54	0 / 5	0
1	Leslie Smith	29 / 93	29 / 93	0 / 0	0
2	Rin Nakai	1 / 13	17 / 33	2 / 4	1
2	Leslie Smith	11 / 36	15 / 41	0 / 0	0
3	Rin Nakai	8 / 29	16 / 37	1 / 4	0
3	Leslie Smith	22 / 52	28 / 59	0 / 0	0

Leslie Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7

Rin Nakai

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach—

Fights2