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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Leslie Smith won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1499

Leslie SmithvsIrene AldanaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · Saturday, December 17, 2016Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Leslie Smith won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLeslie Smith: Pressure fightervsIrene Aldana: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Leslie Smith wins(52.9%)

Actual result: Leslie Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leslie Smith at +255 American odds

+$255 profit

$355 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Irene Aldana has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Leslie Smith

Red Corner

Irene Aldana

Blue Corner

+255

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-310

(76%)

1491

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leslie Smith

oldest →

KOvs Jessamyn Duke · Jul 14

KOvs Jessica Eye · Nov 14

vs Rin Nakai · Mar 16

KOvs Cris Cyborg · May 16

KOvs Amanda Lemos · Jul 17

latest

Irene Aldana

oldest →

KOvs Yana Kunitskaya · Jul 21

KOvs Macy Chiasson · Sep 22

vs Amanda Nunes · Jun 23

vs Karol Rosa · Dec 23

vs Norma Dumont · Sep 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leslie SmithMetricIrene Aldana

7.56

Strikes / min

5.19

8.41

Strikes absorbed / min

6.64

51%

Strike defense

56%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.15

62%

Takedown defense

77%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85evenly matched on net striking-1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leslie SmithIrene Aldana

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leslie Smith(7 fights)Irene Aldana(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.2|Blue +8.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -47.0|Blue +47.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leslie SmithTargetIrene Aldana

By target zone

126

38% acc · 75%

Head

37% acc · 78%

57% acc · 14%

Body

82% acc · 8%

79% acc · 11%

Leg

75% acc · 14%

By position

150

42% acc · 89%

Distance

40% acc · 87%

52% acc · 8%

Clinch

68% acc · 12%

40% acc · 4%

Ground

33% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leslie Smith rounds

even

Irene Aldana rounds

Round 1Leslie Smith edged it

Sig. strikes67

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns1

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Leslie Smith edged it

Sig. strikes52

Takedowns0

Control0:04

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Leslie Smith edged it

Sig. strikes50

Takedowns0

Control0:01

38Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

169 / 401

Sig Strikes

108 / 256

41.7%

Sig Str %

42%

172 / 404

Total Strikes

108 / 256

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Irene Aldana	37 / 93	37 / 93	0 / 0
1	Leslie Smith	67 / 153	70 / 156	0 / 0
2	Irene Aldana	33 / 88	33 / 88	0 / 0
2	Leslie Smith	52 / 120	52 / 120	0 / 0
3	Irene Aldana	38 / 75	38 / 75	1 / 1
3	Leslie Smith	50 / 128	50 / 128	0 / 0

Leslie Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7

Irene Aldana

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14