Featherweight

3 Rounds

Lerone Murphy won · U-DEC R3

Elo1534

Elo1491

Lerone MurphyvsJosh CulibaoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Saturday, July 22, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Lerone Murphy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLerone Murphy: Elusive strikervsJosh Culibao: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Lerone Murphy wins(73.2%)

Actual result: Lerone Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lerone Murphy at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Culibao has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Lerone Murphy

Red Corner

Josh Culibao

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1534

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lerone Murphy

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · May 24

vs Dan Ige · Oct 24

vs Josh Emmett · Apr 25

KOvs Aaron Pico · Aug 25

vs Movsar Evloev · Mar 26

latest

Josh CulibaoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · May 21

vs SeungWoo Choi · Jun 22

SUBvs Melsik Baghdasaryan · Feb 23

vs Danny Silva · Mar 24

vs Ricardo Ramos · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lerone MurphyMetricJosh Culibao

4.34

Strikes / min

3.41

2.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

60%

Strike defense

59%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

0.00

44%

Takedown defense

65%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.69Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lerone MurphyJosh Culibao

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lerone Murphy(10 fights)Josh Culibao(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.5|Blue -42.5

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lerone MurphyTargetJosh Culibao

By target zone

46% acc · 63%

Head

33% acc · 70%

83% acc · 25%

Body

83% acc · 22%

70% acc · 12%

Leg

40% acc · 9%

By position

39% acc · 41%

Distance

36% acc · 83%

86% acc · 20%

Clinch

67% acc · 17%

68% acc · 39%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lerone Murphy rounds

even

Josh Culibao rounds

Round 1Lerone Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:13

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Lerone Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:39

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 3Lerone Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns2

Control3:46

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 109

Sig Strikes

23 / 59

53%

Sig Str %

43.3%

87 / 144

Total Strikes

40 / 77

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 2

55.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:38

Ctrl Time

1:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Culibao	11 / 34	20 / 43	0 / 0	0
1	Lerone Murphy	18 / 37	18 / 37	0 / 1	0
2	Josh Culibao	7 / 16	14 / 24	0 / 2	0
2	Lerone Murphy	12 / 23	24 / 38	1 / 1	0
3	Josh Culibao	5 / 9	6 / 10	0 / 0	0
3	Lerone Murphy	29 / 49	45 / 69	2 / 3	2

Lerone Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Josh Culibao

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6