Featherweight

3 Rounds

Lerone Murphy won · S-DEC R3

Elo1534

Elo1512

Lerone MurphyvsGabriel SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Saturday, March 18, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Lerone Murphy won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLerone Murphy: Elusive strikervsGabriel Santos: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Lerone Murphy wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Lerone Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lerone Murphy at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lerone Murphy has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gabriel Santos has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Lerone Murphy

Red Corner

Gabriel Santos

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+152

(40%)

1534

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lerone Murphy

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · May 24

vs Dan Ige · Oct 24

vs Josh Emmett · Apr 25

KOvs Aaron Pico · Aug 25

vs Movsar Evloev · Mar 26

latest

Gabriel SantosW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs David Onama · Jun 23

vs Yizha · Sep 24

SUBvs Jack Jenkins · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lerone MurphyMetricGabriel Santos

4.34

Strikes / min

4.35

2.65

Strikes absorbed / min

4.31

60%

Strike defense

45%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

3.80

44%

Takedown defense

87%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.69Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap+0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lerone MurphyGabriel Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lerone Murphy(10 fights)Gabriel Santos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.7|Blue -21.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lerone MurphyTargetGabriel Santos

By target zone

50% acc · 63%

Head

44% acc · 46%

73% acc · 29%

Body

71% acc · 35%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

87% acc · 19%

By position

53% acc · 83%

Distance

52% acc · 80%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

93% acc · 20%

80% acc · 4%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lerone Murphy rounds

even

Gabriel Santos rounds

Round 1Gabriel Santos edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:59

36Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:39Control

Round 2Lerone Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control1:14

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 3Lerone Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:05

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

93 / 161

Sig Strikes

69 / 122

57%

Sig Str %

53.7%

115 / 183

Total Strikes

87 / 141

1 / 2

TDs

5 / 11

50%

TD %

46.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:18

Ctrl Time

4:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gabriel Santos	36 / 54	37 / 55	2 / 4
1	Lerone Murphy	33 / 58	37 / 62	0 / 0
2	Gabriel Santos	13 / 32	26 / 46	1 / 2
2	Lerone Murphy	25 / 44	36 / 55	1 / 2
3	Gabriel Santos	20 / 36	24 / 40	2 / 5
3	Lerone Murphy	35 / 59	42 / 66	0 / 0

Lerone Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Gabriel Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4