Featherweight

3 Rounds

Lerone Murphy won · U-DEC

Elo1534

Elo1484

Lerone MurphyvsDouglas Silva de AndradeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · Wednesday, January 20, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Lerone Murphy won

U-DEC

Style matchupLerone Murphy: Elusive strikervsDouglas Silva de Andrade: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Lerone Murphy wins(74.5%)

Actual result: Lerone Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lerone Murphy at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Douglas Silva de Andrade has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Lerone Murphy has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Lerone Murphy

Red Corner

Douglas Silva de Andrade

Blue Corner

-305

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1534

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lerone Murphy

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · May 24

vs Dan Ige · Oct 24

vs Josh Emmett · Apr 25

KOvs Aaron Pico · Aug 25

vs Movsar Evloev · Mar 26

latest

Douglas Silva de AndradeL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sergey Morozov · Feb 22

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 22

vs Cody Stamann · May 23

vs Miles Johns · Jun 24

KOvs Javier Reyes · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lerone MurphyMetricDouglas Silva de Andrade

4.34

Strikes / min

3.54

2.65

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

60%

Strike defense

56%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

0.54

44%

Takedown defense

71%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.69Δ 2.24 — meaningful gap-0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lerone MurphyDouglas Silva de Andrade

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lerone Murphy(10 fights)Douglas Silva de Andrade(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -242.0|Blue +242.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lerone MurphyTargetDouglas Silva de Andrade

By target zone

32% acc · 60%

Head

22% acc · 41%

73% acc · 17%

Body

79% acc · 28%

92% acc · 23%

Leg

60% acc · 31%

By position

38% acc · 77%

Distance

33% acc · 85%

75% acc · 13%

Clinch

86% acc · 15%

50% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lerone Murphy rounds

even

Douglas Silva de Andrade rounds

Round 1Lerone Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:20

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 3Lerone Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:31

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 115

Sig Strikes

39 / 108

41.7%

Sig Str %

35.7%

60 / 131

Total Strikes

51 / 121

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 2

16.5%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:51

Ctrl Time

1:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Douglas Silva de Andrade	11 / 38	12 / 39	0 / 1
1	Lerone Murphy	16 / 37	16 / 37	0 / 0
2	Douglas Silva de Andrade	11 / 27	15 / 31	1 / 1
2	Lerone Murphy	14 / 33	19 / 38	0 / 1
3	Douglas Silva de Andrade	17 / 43	24 / 51	0 / 0
3	Lerone Murphy	18 / 45	25 / 56	1 / 3

Lerone Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Douglas Silva de Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14