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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Lerone Murphy won · U-DEC R3

Elo1534

Elo1485

Lerone MurphyvsDan IgeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Saturday, October 26, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Lerone Murphy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLerone Murphy: Elusive strikervsDan Ige: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Lerone Murphy wins(76.2%)

Actual result: Lerone Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lerone Murphy at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Lerone Murphy

Red Corner

Dan Ige

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1534

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lerone Murphy

oldest →

vs Josh Culibao · Jul 23

vs Edson Barboza · May 24

vs Josh Emmett · Apr 25

KOvs Aaron Pico · Aug 25

vs Movsar Evloev · Mar 26

latest

Dan IgeL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andre Fili · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Jun 24

KOvs Sean Woodson · Apr 25

vs Patricio Freire · Jul 25

KOvs Melquizael Costa · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lerone MurphyMetricDan Ige

4.34

Strikes / min

3.60

2.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.56

60%

Strike defense

56%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

0.93

44%

Takedown defense

56%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.69Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap+0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lerone MurphyDan Ige

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lerone Murphy(10 fights)Dan Ige(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.6|Blue -48.6

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lerone MurphyTargetDan Ige

By target zone

47% acc · 69%

Head

38% acc · 76%

71% acc · 23%

Body

63% acc · 11%

67% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

46% acc · 71%

Distance

41% acc · 70%

75% acc · 23%

Clinch

38% acc · 13%

75% acc · 6%

Ground

73% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lerone Murphy rounds

even

Dan Ige rounds

Round 1Dan Ige edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:22

Knockdowns0

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Lerone Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:57

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 3Lerone Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:58

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 100

Sig Strikes

46 / 106

53%

Sig Str %

35.7%

78 / 133

Total Strikes

52 / 116

3 / 5

TDs

1 / 3

77.7%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:17

Ctrl Time

4:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dan Ige	32 / 60	32 / 61	1 / 1
1	Lerone Murphy	17 / 32	18 / 33	1 / 1
2	Dan Ige	11 / 29	12 / 31	0 / 1
2	Lerone Murphy	19 / 42	36 / 61	1 / 1
3	Dan Ige	3 / 17	8 / 24	0 / 1
3	Lerone Murphy	16 / 26	24 / 39	1 / 3

Lerone Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Dan Ige

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights21