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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Lerone Murphy won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1534
Elo1506
Aaron Pico

Lerone MurphyvsAaron PicoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Saturday, August 16, 2025Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Lerone Murphy won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:21

Style matchupLerone Murphy: Elusive strikervsAaron Pico: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Lerone Murphy wins(78.0%)

Actual result: Lerone Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lerone Murphy at +132 American odds

+$132 profit

$232 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Lerone Murphy has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Lerone Murphy has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Lerone Murphy
Red Corner
VS
Aaron Pico
Blue Corner
+132
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-156
(61%)
1534
Elo
1506
35
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lerone Murphy
oldest →
W
vs Josh Culibao · Jul 23
W
vs Edson Barboza · May 24
W
vs Dan Ige · Oct 24
W
vs Josh Emmett · Apr 25
L
vs Movsar Evloev · Mar 26
latest
Aaron Pico
oldest →
W
DECvs Patricio Pitbull · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lerone MurphyMetricAaron Pico
4.34
Strikes / min
6.16
2.65
Strikes absorbed / min
3.11
60%
Strike defense
45%
1.20
TDs / 15 min
6.54
44%
Takedown defense
0%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.69Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap+3.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1625 vs 1500Strikes4.3 vs 3.9Takedowns1.2 vs 9.0Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.0
Lerone MurphyAaron Pico

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701493151515381560← oldermost recent →
Lerone Murphy(10 fights)Aaron Pico(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +28.2|Blue -28.2
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lerone MurphyTargetAaron Pico

By target zone

4
44% acc · 50%
Head
7
30% acc · 54%
4
67% acc · 50%
Body
5
100% acc · 38%
0
0% acc
Leg
1
100% acc · 8%

By position

6
43% acc · 75%
Distance
7
33% acc · 54%
1
100% acc · 13%
Clinch
3
60% acc · 23%
1
100% acc · 13%
Ground
3
100% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Lerone Murphy rounds
0
even
1
Aaron Pico rounds
Round 1Aaron Pico edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns1
13Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:01Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
8 / 16
Sig Strikes
13 / 29
50%
Sig Str %
44%
8 / 16
Total Strikes
13 / 30
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 3
—
TD %
66%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
2:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Aaron Pico13 / 2913 / 302 / 30
1Lerone Murphy8 / 168 / 160 / 01

Lerone Murphy

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights10

Aaron Pico

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights1