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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Leonardo Santos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1433

Elo1492

Leonardo SantosvsRoman BogatovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Saturday, July 11, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Leonardo Santos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Leonardo Santos wins(79.2%)

Actual result: Leonardo Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leonardo Santos at -177 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leonardo Santos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Leonardo Santos has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Leonardo Santos has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Leonardo Santos

Red Corner

Roman Bogatov

Blue Corner

-177

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1433

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'8"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leonardo SantosL3 streak

oldest →

vs Adriano Martins · Oct 16

KOvs Stevie Ray · Jun 19

KOvs Grant Dawson · Mar 21

SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 21

vs Jared Gordon · Aug 22

latest

Roman BogatovNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leonardo SantosMetricRoman Bogatov

2.82

Strikes / min

3.33

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

54%

Strike defense

44%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

1.00

86%

Takedown defense

50%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.58evenly matched on net striking-1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leonardo SantosRoman Bogatov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leonardo Santos(10 fights)Roman Bogatov(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -59.3|Blue +59.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leonardo SantosTargetRoman Bogatov

By target zone

53% acc · 85%

Head

29% acc · 48%

67% acc · 9%

Body

69% acc · 40%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

47% acc · 64%

Distance

39% acc · 74%

83% acc · 15%

Clinch

86% acc · 12%

78% acc · 21%

Ground

50% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leonardo Santos rounds

even

Roman Bogatov rounds

Round 1Leonardo Santos edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:37

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Leonardo Santos edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:57

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:38Control

Round 3Roman Bogatov edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 119

Sig Strikes

50 / 117

46.3%

Sig Str %

43%

116 / 181

Total Strikes

81 / 155

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 11

50%

TD %

4.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:34

Ctrl Time

6:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roman Bogatov	19 / 50	19 / 50	0 / 2
1	Leonardo Santos	20 / 47	21 / 49	1 / 1
2	Roman Bogatov	13 / 30	27 / 48	0 / 2
2	Leonardo Santos	43 / 61	75 / 103	0 / 0
3	Roman Bogatov	18 / 37	35 / 57	1 / 7
3	Leonardo Santos	3 / 11	20 / 29	0 / 1

Leonardo Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Roman Bogatov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights1