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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Leonardo Santos won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1433

Elo1466

Leonardo SantosvsKevin LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · Saturday, December 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Leonardo Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:26

Style matchupLeonardo Santos: Well-roundedvsKevin Lee: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kevin Lee wins(58.2%)

Actual result: Leonardo Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Lee at -650 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leonardo Santos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Leonardo Santos

Red Corner

Kevin Lee

Blue Corner

+475

(17%)

Vegas Odds

-650

(87%)

1433

Elo

1466

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leonardo SantosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stevie Ray · Jun 19

vs Roman Bogatov · Jul 20

KOvs Grant Dawson · Mar 21

SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 21

vs Jared Gordon · Aug 22

latest

Kevin LeeL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leonardo SantosMetricKevin Lee

2.82

Strikes / min

3.88

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.60

54%

Strike defense

50%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

3.18

86%

Takedown defense

75%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.58evenly matched on net striking+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leonardo SantosKevin Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leonardo Santos(10 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -32.9|Blue +32.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +116.0|Blue -116.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leonardo SantosTargetKevin Lee

By target zone

58% acc · 69%

Head

13% acc · 50%

100% acc · 19%

Body

83% acc · 50%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

60% acc · 56%

Distance

22% acc · 100%

Clinch

78% acc · 44%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leonardo Santos rounds

even

Kevin Lee rounds

Round 1Leonardo Santos edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns1

Control0:30

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 48

Sig Strikes

10 / 46

66%

Sig Str %

21%

32 / 48

Total Strikes

10 / 46

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Lee	10 / 46	10 / 46	0 / 0	0
1	Leonardo Santos	32 / 48	32 / 48	1 / 1	0

Leonardo Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19