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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jared Gordon won · U-DEC R3

Elo1433

Elo1483

Leonardo SantosvsJared GordonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · Saturday, August 20, 2022Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Jared Gordon won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLeonardo Santos: Well-roundedvsJared Gordon: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jared Gordon wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Jared Gordon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Gordon at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leonardo Santos has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Leonardo Santos has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Leonardo Santos

Red Corner

Jared Gordon

Blue Corner

+230

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-275

(73%)

1433

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leonardo SantosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Adriano Martins · Oct 16

KOvs Stevie Ray · Jun 19

vs Roman Bogatov · Jul 20

KOvs Grant Dawson · Mar 21

SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 21

latest

Jared GordonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24

KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25

SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leonardo SantosMetricJared Gordon

2.82

Strikes / min

5.57

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

54%

Strike defense

55%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

1.91

86%

Takedown defense

60%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.58Δ 2.04 — meaningful gap+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leonardo SantosJared Gordon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leonardo Santos(10 fights)Jared Gordon(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leonardo SantosTargetJared Gordon

By target zone

35% acc · 58%

Head

56% acc · 58%

69% acc · 31%

Body

89% acc · 35%

80% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

39% acc · 81%

Distance

63% acc · 74%

100% acc · 19%

Clinch

76% acc · 22%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leonardo Santos rounds

even

Jared Gordon rounds

Round 1Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 2Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:29

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:54Control

Round 3Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:25

50Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 81

Sig Strikes

116 / 174

45.3%

Sig Str %

66%

41 / 86

Total Strikes

203 / 265

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:54

Ctrl Time

3:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Gordon	37 / 60	53 / 76	0 / 0
1	Leonardo Santos	10 / 22	10 / 22	0 / 0
2	Jared Gordon	29 / 43	51 / 68	0 / 0
2	Leonardo Santos	13 / 24	16 / 27	0 / 2
3	Jared Gordon	50 / 71	99 / 121	0 / 0
3	Leonardo Santos	13 / 35	15 / 37	0 / 1

Leonardo Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Jared Gordon

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17