← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Grant Dawson won · KO/TKO

Elo1433

Elo1527

Leonardo SantosvsGrant DawsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · Saturday, March 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Grant Dawson won

KO/TKO

Style matchupLeonardo Santos: Well-roundedvsGrant Dawson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(71.1%)

Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Grant Dawson at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Grant Dawson threatens submissions; Leonardo Santos has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Leonardo Santos has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Leonardo Santos has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Leonardo Santos

Red Corner

Grant Dawson

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1433

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leonardo SantosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Adriano Martins · Oct 16

KOvs Stevie Ray · Jun 19

vs Roman Bogatov · Jul 20

SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 21

vs Jared Gordon · Aug 22

latest

Grant Dawson

oldest →

vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24

vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25

KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leonardo SantosMetricGrant Dawson

2.82

Strikes / min

3.14

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

54%

Strike defense

44%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

3.58

86%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.58Δ 1.58 — meaningful gap+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leonardo SantosGrant Dawson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leonardo Santos(10 fights)Grant Dawson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -94.2|Blue +94.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leonardo SantosTargetGrant Dawson

By target zone

31% acc · 47%

Head

33% acc · 35%

60% acc · 20%

Body

85% acc · 50%

83% acc · 33%

Leg

78% acc · 15%

By position

43% acc · 93%

Distance

49% acc · 72%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

82% acc · 20%

Ground

80% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leonardo Santos rounds

even

Grant Dawson rounds

Round 1Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:42

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:24Control

Round 2Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:30

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 3Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:09

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 67

Sig Strikes

46 / 84

45.7%

Sig Str %

54.3%

74 / 115

Total Strikes

75 / 132

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 13

50%

TD %

8.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:21

Ctrl Time

8:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Grant Dawson	12 / 23	14 / 26	0 / 5
1	Leonardo Santos	10 / 19	28 / 37	1 / 2
2	Grant Dawson	23 / 42	27 / 46	0 / 4
2	Leonardo Santos	16 / 39	40 / 67	0 / 0
3	Grant Dawson	11 / 19	34 / 60	1 / 4
3	Leonardo Santos	4 / 9	6 / 11	0 / 0

Leonardo Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Grant Dawson

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14