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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Leonardo Santos won · SUB R2

Elo1433

Elo1492

Leonardo SantosvsAnthony Rocco MartinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · Saturday, March 21, 2015Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Leonardo Santos won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:29

Style matchupLeonardo Santos: Well-roundedvsAnthony Rocco Martin: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Leonardo Santos wins(73.1%)

Actual result: Leonardo Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leonardo Santos at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leonardo Santos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Leonardo Santos has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Leonardo Santos

Red Corner

Anthony Rocco Martin

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1433

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leonardo SantosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stevie Ray · Jun 19

vs Roman Bogatov · Jul 20

KOvs Grant Dawson · Mar 21

SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 21

vs Jared Gordon · Aug 22

latest

Anthony Rocco Martin

oldest →

vs Keita Nakamura · Apr 18

KOvs Ryan LaFlare · Oct 18

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Dec 18

vs Sergio Moraes · Mar 19

vs Neil Magny · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leonardo SantosMetricAnthony Rocco Martin

2.82

Strikes / min

2.68

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

54%

Strike defense

58%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

0.71

86%

Takedown defense

68%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.58evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leonardo SantosAnthony Rocco Martin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leonardo Santos(10 fights)Anthony Rocco Martin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -59.4|Blue +59.4

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leonardo SantosTargetAnthony Rocco Martin

By target zone

24% acc · 50%

Head

27% acc · 57%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 7%

55% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 36%

By position

31% acc · 100%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leonardo Santos rounds

even

Anthony Rocco Martin rounds

Round 1Anthony Rocco Martin edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:20

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 2Leonardo Santos edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:07

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 39

Sig Strikes

14 / 36

32%

Sig Str %

40.5%

16 / 43

Total Strikes

24 / 46

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 3

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:27

Ctrl Time

1:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Rocco Martin	9 / 25	19 / 35	0 / 2	0
1	Leonardo Santos	5 / 23	8 / 26	0 / 1	0
2	Anthony Rocco Martin	5 / 11	5 / 11	0 / 1	0
2	Leonardo Santos	7 / 16	8 / 17	1 / 1	1

Leonardo Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Anthony Rocco Martin

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13