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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Leonardo Santos won · S-DEC R3

Elo1433

Elo1362

Leonardo SantosvsAdriano MartinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · Saturday, October 8, 2016Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Leonardo Santos won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Leonardo Santos wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Leonardo Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leonardo Santos at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leonardo Santos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Adriano Martins has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Adriano Martins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Leonardo Santos

Red Corner

Adriano Martins

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1433

Elo

1362

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leonardo SantosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stevie Ray · Jun 19

vs Roman Bogatov · Jul 20

KOvs Grant Dawson · Mar 21

SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 21

vs Jared Gordon · Aug 22

latest

Adriano Martins

oldest →

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 14

KOvs Juan Puig · Jul 14

vs Rustam Khabilov · Feb 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 15

KOvs Kajan Johnson · Sep 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leonardo SantosMetricAdriano Martins

2.82

Strikes / min

1.80

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

54%

Strike defense

65%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

0.83

86%

Takedown defense

81%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.58evenly matched on net striking-0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leonardo SantosAdriano Martins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leonardo Santos(10 fights)Adriano Martins(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +71.3|Blue -71.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leonardo SantosTargetAdriano Martins

By target zone

19% acc · 39%

Head

17% acc · 24%

44% acc · 30%

Body

60% acc · 18%

100% acc · 30%

Leg

80% acc · 59%

By position

32% acc · 96%

Distance

41% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leonardo Santos rounds

even

Adriano Martins rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Adriano Martins edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Adriano Martins edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 70

Sig Strikes

34 / 83

33.3%

Sig Str %

36.7%

23 / 70

Total Strikes

34 / 84

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Adriano Martins	3 / 18	3 / 19	0 / 0
1	Leonardo Santos	4 / 22	4 / 22	0 / 0
2	Adriano Martins	12 / 26	12 / 26	0 / 0
2	Leonardo Santos	9 / 28	9 / 28	0 / 0
3	Adriano Martins	19 / 39	19 / 39	0 / 0
3	Leonardo Santos	10 / 20	10 / 20	0 / 1

Leonardo Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Adriano Martins

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7