Lightweight

3 Rounds

Leonardo Mafra won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1354

Leonardo MafravsCain CarrizosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · Saturday, March 21, 2015Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Leonardo Mafra won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Leonardo Mafra wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Leonardo Mafra wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leonardo Mafra at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leonardo Mafra enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Leonardo Mafra has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Cain Carrizosa has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Leonardo Mafra

Red Corner

Cain Carrizosa

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1490

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leonardo MafraL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Perpetuo · Jun 12

SUBvs Rick Story · Jul 14

KOvs Stevie Ray · Jul 15

latest

Cain Carrizosa

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Wade · Aug 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leonardo MafraMetricCain Carrizosa

4.55

Strikes / min

2.72

4.38

Strikes absorbed / min

5.80

43%

Strike defense

51%

2.12

TDs / 15 min

0.00

69%

Takedown defense

14%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.17Δ 3.25 — meaningful gap-3.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leonardo MafraCain Carrizosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leonardo Mafra(4 fights)Cain Carrizosa(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.0|Blue -136.0

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +45.0|Blue -45.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leonardo MafraTargetCain Carrizosa

By target zone

42% acc · 69%

Head

42% acc · 80%

61% acc · 12%

Body

50% acc · 18%

90% acc · 19%

Leg

50% acc · 2%

By position

45% acc · 73%

Distance

44% acc · 95%

62% acc · 9%

Clinch

40% acc · 5%

71% acc · 18%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leonardo Mafra rounds

even

Cain Carrizosa rounds

Round 1Leonardo Mafra edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns1

Control0:15

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Leonardo Mafra edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns2

Control2:20

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 3Leonardo Mafra edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns2

Control4:16

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 191

Sig Strikes

44 / 101

53.3%

Sig Str %

46%

151 / 252

Total Strikes

52 / 110

5 / 6

TDs

0 / 5

88.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:51

Ctrl Time

0:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cain Carrizosa	30 / 71	30 / 71	0 / 2
1	Leonardo Mafra	45 / 109	46 / 110	1 / 1
2	Cain Carrizosa	7 / 18	12 / 23	0 / 2
2	Leonardo Mafra	26 / 46	45 / 67	2 / 3
3	Cain Carrizosa	7 / 12	10 / 16	0 / 1
3	Leonardo Mafra	23 / 36	60 / 75	2 / 2

Leonardo Mafra

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Cain Carrizosa

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach—

Fights2