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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nam Phan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1353

Leonard GarciavsNam PhanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · Saturday, October 8, 2011Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Nam Phan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Nam Phan wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Nam Phan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nam Phan at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leonard Garcia enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Nam Phan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nam Phan has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Leonard Garcia

Red Corner

Nam Phan

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1352

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leonard GarciaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Nam Phan · Dec 10

SUBvs Chan Sung Jung · Mar 11

vs Matt Grice · Jun 12

vs Max Holloway · Dec 12

vs Cody McKenzie · Apr 13

latest

Nam PhanL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jimy Hettes · Dec 11

vs Cole Miller · Aug 12

vs Dennis Siver · Dec 12

vs Takeya Mizugaki · Dec 13

vs Vaughan Lee · Mar 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leonard GarciaMetricNam Phan

2.77

Strikes / min

4.52

4.79

Strikes absorbed / min

6.55

52%

Strike defense

59%

0.30

TDs / 15 min

0.18

42%

Takedown defense

60%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.02evenly matched on net striking-2.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leonard GarciaNam Phan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leonard Garcia(6 fights)Nam Phan(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leonard GarciaTargetNam Phan

By target zone

17% acc · 56%

Head

131

45% acc · 75%

68% acc · 19%

Body

88% acc · 25%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

0% acc

By position

27% acc · 99%

Distance

173

51% acc · 99%

33% acc · 1%

Clinch

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leonard Garcia rounds

even

Nam Phan rounds

Round 1Nam Phan edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 2Nam Phan edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

78Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Nam Phan edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:25

Knockdowns1

54Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

100 / 374

Sig Strikes

174 / 339

26.3%

Sig Str %

52%

107 / 382

Total Strikes

195 / 360

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:25

Ctrl Time

1:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nam Phan	42 / 85	50 / 93	0 / 0
1	Leonard Garcia	32 / 104	36 / 109	0 / 1
2	Nam Phan	78 / 165	78 / 165	0 / 0
2	Leonard Garcia	36 / 136	36 / 136	0 / 0
3	Nam Phan	54 / 89	67 / 102	1 / 1
3	Leonard Garcia	32 / 134	35 / 137	0 / 1

Leonard Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Nam Phan

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8